Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today -Â July 2016.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Occidental Petroleum Corporation is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company operates through three segments: oil and gas, chemical (OxyChem), and midstream and marketing. The oil and gas segment explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas. The OxyChem segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals and vinyls. OxyChem owns and operates manufacturing plants at approximately 20 domestic sites in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas, and at two international sites in Canada and Chile. The midstream and marketing segment gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases and markets oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide (CO2) and power. It also trades around its assets, including transportation and storage capacity. Additionally, the midstream and marketing segment invests in entities that conduct similar activities.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of OXY – August 2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$59,134,928,626||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.70||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-153.32%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||-57.43||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||2.53||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.70||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||2.25||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-4.25%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||-$19.32|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||-$11.33|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||-32.97%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Occidental Petroleum Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $6.25 in 2012 to an estimated $-1.33 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Occidental Petroleum Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $3 per share, for a yield of 3.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -57.43, which was below the industry average of 55.24, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-13.52.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$13.52|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||14|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||6/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$8,972,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$5,267,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||763,600,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$0.35|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$1.33|
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The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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