Machinery Stocks

Regal Beloit Corp Valuation – August 2016 $RBC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Regal Beloit Corp (RBC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Regal Beloit Corporation is a manufacturer of electric motors and controls, electric generators and controls, and power transmission products. The Company operates through three segments: Commercial and Industrial Systems, Climate Solutions and Power Transmission Solutions. Its Commercial and Industrial Systems segment produces medium and large motors, commercial and industrial equipment, generator and custom drives and systems serving commercial heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), and power and oil and gas systems. Its Climate Solutions segment produces small motors, controls and air moving solutions serving markets, including residential and light commercial HVAC, and commercial refrigeration. Its Power Transmission Solutions segment manufactures, sells and services belt and chain drives, helical and worm gearing, mounted and unmounted bearings, couplings, modular plastic belts, conveying chains and components, hydraulic pump drives and specialty mechanical products.

RBC Chart

RBC data by YCharts

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of RBC – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,834,740,814 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.73 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -16.97% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.57 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.43 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.73 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.55 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

RBC value chart August 2016

EPSmg $3.10
MG Growth Estimate -3.17%
MG Value $6.68
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $44.91
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.33
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.04%
Current Price $63.72
% of Intrinsic Value 954.29%

Regal Beloit Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.93 in 2012 to an estimated $3.1 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.04% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Regal Beloit Corp revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $66.35. The company pays a dividend of $0.93 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.57, which was below the industry average of 20.76, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.82.

Regal Beloit Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

RBC charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$19.82
Graham Number $66.35
PEmg 20.57
Current Ratio 2.73
PB Ratio 1.43
Current Dividend $0.93
Dividend Yield 1.46%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 12

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,636,800,000
Total Current Liabilities $599,800,000
Long-Term Debt $1,610,500,000
Total Assets $4,540,600,000
Intangible Assets $2,215,100,000
Total Liabilities $2,528,600,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 45,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.35
Dec2015 $3.18
Dec2014 $0.69
Dec2013 $2.64
Dec2012 $4.64
Dec2011 $3.79
Dec2010 $3.84
Dec2009 $2.63
Dec2008 $3.78
Dec2007 $3.49
Dec2006 $3.28
Dec2005 $2.25
Dec2004 $1.22
Dec2003 $1.00
Dec2002 $1.01
Dec2001 $0.93
Dec2000 $1.61
Dec1999 $1.80
Dec1998 $2.02
Dec1997 $1.83
Dec1996 $1.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.10
Dec2015 $2.64
Dec2014 $2.62
Dec2013 $3.56
Dec2012 $3.93
Dec2011 $3.55
Dec2010 $3.42
Dec2009 $3.17
Dec2008 $3.23
Dec2007 $2.72
Dec2006 $2.14
Dec2005 $1.47
Dec2004 $1.11
Dec2003 $1.12
Dec2002 $1.28
Dec2001 $1.49
Dec2000 $1.77

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – June 2015
Regal-Beloit Corporation Analysis – 2015 Update $RBC
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/21/15
Regal-Beloit Corporation Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $RBC
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/13/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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