Insurance Stocks

Chubb Limited Valuation – August 2016 $CB

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chubb Limited (CB) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chubb Limited, formerly ACE Limited, is a holding company that provides a range of insurance and reinsurance products to insureds. The Company’s segments include Insurance – North American P&C, which consists of operations in the United States, Canada and Bermuda; Insurance – North American Agriculture segment, which consists of its North American-based businesses that provide various coverages in the United States and Canada; Insurance – Overseas General segment, which consists of ACE International, ACE Global Markets (AGM) and the international supplemental A&H business of Combined Insurance; Global Reinsurance segment, which represents ACE’s reinsurance operations, comprising ACE Tempest Re Bermuda, ACE Tempest Re USA, ACE Tempest Re International and ACE Tempest Re Canada, and Life segment, which consists of ACE’s international life operations (ACE Life), ACE Tempest Life Re (ACE Life Re), and the North American supplemental A&H and life business of Combined Insurance.

CB Chart

CB data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CB – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $58,388,754,633 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 28.38% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.24 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.26 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CB value chart August 2016

EPSmg $8.29
MG Growth Estimate 3.03%
MG Value $120.75
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $120.22
MG Value based on 0% Growth $70.48
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.37%
Current Price $126.32
% of Intrinsic Value 104.61%

Chubb Ltd is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.9 in 2012 to an estimated $8.29 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 3.37% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chubb Ltd revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $126.36. The company pays a dividend of $2.7 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.24, which was below the industry average of 16.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Chubb Ltd performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CB charts August 2016

Graham Number $126.36
PEmg 15.24
PB Ratio 1.26
Dividend Yield 2.14%
TTM Dividend $2.70
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $12,631,000,000
Total Assets $160,203,000,000
Intangible Assets $22,923,000,000
Total Liabilities $112,977,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 471,157,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.98
Dec2015 $8.62
Dec2014 $8.42
Dec2013 $10.92
Dec2012 $7.89
Dec2011 $4.52
Dec2010 $9.11
Dec2009 $7.55
Dec2008 $3.50
Dec2007 $7.66
Dec2006 $6.91
Dec2005 $3.31
Dec2004 $3.88
Dec2003 $5.25
Dec2002 $0.27
Dec2001 -$0.78
Dec2000 $2.31
Dec1999 $1.85
Sep1998 $2.96
Sep1997 $2.69
Sep1996 $2.69

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.29
Dec2015 $8.66
Dec2014 $8.51
Dec2013 $8.37
Dec2012 $6.90
Dec2011 $6.42
Dec2010 $7.23
Dec2009 $6.12
Dec2008 $5.29
Dec2007 $5.93
Dec2006 $4.68
Dec2005 $3.17
Dec2004 $2.80
Dec2003 $2.10
Dec2002 $0.79
Dec2001 $1.30
Dec2000 $2.39

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chubb Ltd Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CB
Dividend Growth Stocks for Intelligent Investors – February 2016
Dividend Growth Stocks for the Intelligent Investor – November 2015
Dividend Growth Stocks for the Intelligent Investor – October 2015
The Best Companies of the Insurance Industry – October 2015

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Aetna Inc Valuation – July 2016 $AET
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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