Comerica Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CMA
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Comerica Inc (CMA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Comerica Incorporated (Comerica) is a financial services company. The Company’s principal activity is lending to and accepting deposits from businesses and individuals. Comerica has its operations in three business segments: the Business Bank, the Retail Bank and Wealth Management. In addition to the three business segments, it also operates in the Finance segment. The Business Bank segment serves middle market businesses, multinational corporations and governmental entities by offering various products and services. The Retail Bank segment includes small business banking and personal financial services, consisting of consumer lending, consumer deposit gathering and mortgage loan origination. The Wealth Management segment offers fiduciary services, private banking, retirement services, investment management and advisory services, investment banking and brokerage services. The Finance segment includes its securities portfolio, and asset and liability management activities.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of CMA – August 2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $7,940,463,120 | Pass | |
| 2. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 3. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 64.23% | Pass | |
| 5. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 17.33 | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 1.05 | Pass | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 2. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 3. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $2.64 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 9.70% |
| MG Value | $73.70 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Grade | C- |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $38.29 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $22.45 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 4.41% |
| Current Price | $45.76 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 62.09% |
Comerica Incorporated is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.6 in 2012 to an estimated $2.64 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.41% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Comerica Incorporated revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $45.5. The company pays a dividend of $0.85 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.33, which was above the industry average of 13.43.
Comerica Incorporated receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Graham Number | $45.50 |
| PEmg | 17.33 |
| PB Ratio | 1.05 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.86% |
| TTM Dividend | $0.85 |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 7 |
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Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 6/1/2016 |
| Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation | $5,921,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $71,280,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $63,586,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 177,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.08 |
| Dec2015 | $2.84 |
| Dec2014 | $3.16 |
| Dec2013 | $2.85 |
| Dec2012 | $2.67 |
| Dec2011 | $2.09 |
| Dec2010 | $0.88 |
| Dec2009 | -$0.79 |
| Dec2008 | $1.28 |
| Dec2007 | $4.43 |
| Dec2006 | $5.49 |
| Dec2005 | $5.11 |
| Dec2004 | $4.36 |
| Dec2003 | $3.75 |
| Dec2002 | $3.40 |
| Dec2001 | $3.88 |
| Dec2000 | $4.31 |
| Dec1999 | $4.14 |
| Dec1998 | $3.72 |
| Dec1997 | $3.19 |
| Dec1996 | $2.38 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.64 |
| Dec2015 | $2.85 |
| Dec2014 | $2.68 |
| Dec2013 | $2.14 |
| Dec2012 | $1.60 |
| Dec2011 | $1.24 |
| Dec2010 | $1.30 |
| Dec2009 | $2.04 |
| Dec2008 | $3.68 |
| Dec2007 | $4.79 |
| Dec2006 | $4.79 |
| Dec2005 | $4.33 |
| Dec2004 | $3.94 |
| Dec2003 | $3.78 |
| Dec2002 | $3.83 |
| Dec2001 | $3.98 |
| Dec2000 | $3.87 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
