Target Corp Valuation – August 2016 $TGT

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today - July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Target Corp (TGT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Target Corporation offers everyday essentials and merchandise to its customers. The Company sells a range of general merchandise and food through its store and digital channels. The Company’s general merchandise stores offer an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy and frozen items. The Company’s digital channels include a range of general merchandise, including various items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment, such as additional sizes and colors sold only online. The Company’s brands include Archer Farms, Market Pantry, Threshold, Simply Balanced, Merona, up & up, Boots & Barkley, Room Essentials, Wine Cube, Circo, Smith & Hawken, Xhilaration, Embark, Ava & Viv, Spritz and Sonia Kashuk. The Company’s exclusive brands include C9 by Champion, DENIZEN from Levi’s, Nate Berkus for Target, Cherokee, Fieldcrest, Oh Joy! for Target, Mossimo, Genuine Kids from OshKosh, Shaun White, Kid Made Modern and Hand Made Modern.

TGT Chart

TGT data by YCharts

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TGT – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $40,356,659,284 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.05 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -24.55% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.82 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.57 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.05 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 24.13 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

TGT value chart August 2016

EPSmg $3.08
MG Growth Estimate -3.66%
MG Value $3.67
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $44.73
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.22
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.16%
Current Price $70.39
% of Intrinsic Value 1919.55%

Target Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.08 in 2013 to an estimated $3.08 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.16% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Target Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $44.15. The company pays a dividend of $2.24 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.82, which was below the industry average of 49.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.21.

Target Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

TGT charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.21
Graham Number $44.15
PEmg 22.82
Current Ratio 1.05
PB Ratio 3.57
Current Dividend $2.24
Dividend Yield 3.18%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20


Useful Links:

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GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 7/1/2016
Total Current Assets $11,503,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $11,003,000,000
Long-Term Debt $12,063,000,000
Total Assets $37,288,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $25,711,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 586,800,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.41
Jan2016 $5.31
Jan2015 -$2.56
Jan2014 $3.07
Jan2013 $4.52
Jan2012 $4.28
Jan2011 $4.00
Jan2010 $3.30
Jan2009 $2.86
Jan2008 $3.33
Jan2007 $3.21
Jan2006 $2.71
Jan2005 $3.51
Jan2004 $1.76
Jan2003 $1.78
Jan2002 $1.21
Jan2001 $1.38
Jan2000 $1.23
Jan1999 $0.99
Jan1998 $0.80
Jan1997 $0.48

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.08
Jan2016 $2.59
Jan2015 $1.71
Jan2014 $3.84
Jan2013 $4.08
Jan2012 $3.76
Jan2011 $3.44
Jan2010 $3.14
Jan2009 $3.08
Jan2008 $3.09
Jan2007 $2.85
Jan2006 $2.51
Jan2005 $2.25
Jan2004 $1.57
Jan2003 $1.42
Jan2002 $1.20
Jan2001 $1.12

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Target Corporation Stock Analysis – 2015 Update $TGT
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – June 21, 2014
Target Corp Annual Valuation – 2014 $TGT
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/22/14
Target Corporation (TGT) Quarterly Valuation – March 2014

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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