Chemicals Stocks

Albemarle Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $ALB

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Albemarle Corporation (ALB) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Albemarle Corporation is a developer, manufacturer and marketer of specialty chemicals across a range of end markets, including the petroleum refining, consumer electronics, energy storage, construction, automotive, steel and aerospace, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, heating, ventilation, and aluminum finishing. The Company operates through three segments: Performance Chemicals, Refining Solutions and Chemetall Surface Treatment. Its Performance Chemicals segment consists of three product categories: Lithium, Performance Catalyst Solutions and Bromine. Its Refining Solutions Segment offers two product lines, including Clean Fuels Technologies, which is composed of hydroprocessing catalysts, and Heavy Oil Upgrading, which is composed of fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) catalysts and additives. Its Chemetall Surface Treatment segment operates under the Chemetall brand name and is a supplier of applied surface treatments and services for metal, plastic and glass substrates.

ALB Chart

ALB data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ALB – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,089,139,541 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.32 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -16.43% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 36.98 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.97 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.32 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 8.19 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

ALB value chart August 2016

EPSmg $2.24
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $32.47
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.03
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.24%
Current Price $82.81
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Albemarle Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.38 in 2012 to an estimated $2.24 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 14.24% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Albemarle Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $20.27. The company pays a dividend of $1.19 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 36.98, which was above the industry average of 18.73. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-40.89.

Albemarle Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ALB charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$40.89
Graham Number $20.27
PEmg 36.98
Current Ratio 1.32
PB Ratio 2.97
Current Dividend $1.19
Dividend Yield 1.44%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,527,760,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,159,058,000
Long-Term Debt $3,019,478,000
Total Assets $9,312,381,000
Intangible Assets $1,853,537,000
Total Liabilities $6,155,766,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 113,175,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.65
Dec2015 $3.00
Dec2014 $1.69
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $3.47
Dec2011 $4.28
Dec2010 $3.43
Dec2009 $1.94
Dec2008 $2.09
Dec2007 $2.36
Dec2006 $1.47
Dec2005 $1.20
Dec2004 $0.65
Dec2003 $0.86
Dec2002 $0.85
Dec2001 $0.74
Dec2000 $1.09
Dec1999 $0.94
Dec1998 $0.82
Dec1997 $0.72
Dec1996 $1.33

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.24
Dec2015 $3.18
Dec2014 $3.36
Dec2013 $4.00
Dec2012 $3.38
Dec2011 $3.17
Dec2010 $2.49
Dec2009 $1.95
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.56
Dec2006 $1.11
Dec2005 $0.90
Dec2004 $0.78
Dec2003 $0.87
Dec2002 $0.87
Dec2001 $0.88
Dec2000 $0.96

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Albemarle Corp Valuation – February 2016 $ALB
Albemarle Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $ALB
Albemarle Corp Valuation – February 2016 $ALB
Albemarle Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $ALB
Albemarle Corporation Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALB

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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