Restaurants Stocks

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CMG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The Company’s Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company operates approximately 1,970 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, over 10 in Canada, seven in England, four in France and one in Germany. The Company’s restaurants include over 10 ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen restaurants, serving Asian-inspired cuisine. The Company owned and operated approximately three Pizzeria Locale restaurants, a fast casual pizza concept, resulting in a totaling of approximately 2,010 restaurants. The Company sells gift cards which do not have an expiration date.

CMG Chart

CMG data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMG – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,016,074,858 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.40 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 272.87% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 42.36 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.01 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.40 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CMG value chart August 2016

EPSmg $9.58
MG Growth Estimate 7.00%
MG Value $215.49
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $138.89
MG Value based on 0% Growth $81.42
Market Implied Growth Rate 16.93%
Current Price $405.80
% of Intrinsic Value 188.31%

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the low current ratio, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.53 in 2012 to an estimated $9.58 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 16.93% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $50.69. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 42.36, which was above the industry average of 30.22. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-7.77.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CMG charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$7.77
Graham Number $50.69
PEmg 42.36
Current Ratio 1.40
PB Ratio 8.01
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $387,707,000
Total Current Liabilities $276,528,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,101,800,000
Intangible Assets $21,939,000
Total Liabilities $615,757,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 29,340,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.24
Dec2015 $15.10
Dec2014 $14.13
Dec2013 $10.47
Dec2012 $8.75
Dec2011 $6.76
Dec2010 $5.64
Dec2009 $3.95
Dec2008 $2.36
Dec2007 $2.13
Dec2006 $1.28
Dec2005 $1.43
Dec2004 $0.24
Dec2003 -$0.34
Dec2002 -$0.87
Dec2001 -$1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.58
Dec2015 $12.51
Dec2014 $10.53
Dec2013 $8.19
Dec2012 $6.53
Dec2011 $5.00
Dec2010 $3.77
Dec2009 $2.64
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $0.75
Dec2005 $0.26
Dec2004 -$0.38
Dec2003 -$0.64
Dec2002 -$0.69
Dec2001 -$0.50

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CMG
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Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG
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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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