Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): ACI Worldwide, Inc. develops, markets, installs and supports a line of software products and services primarily focused on facilitating electronic payments. The Company also distributes or acts as a sales agent for software developed by third parties. These products and services are used principally by financial institutions, retailers, billers and electronic payment processors, both in domestic and international markets. The Company’s products are sold and supported through distribution networks covering three geographic regions, including the Americas, Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA) and Asia/Pacific. The electronic payments market consists of financial institutions, retailers, billers, third-party electronic payment processors, payment associations, switch interchanges and a range of transaction-generating endpoints, including automated teller machines (ATM), retail merchant locations, bank branches, mobile phones, corporations and Internet commerce sites.
[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
[/level-free]
[not-level-free]
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
moderngraham-valuation-of-aciw-november-2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $2,215,717,012 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 0.75 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 904.83% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 28.15 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 3.13 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 0.75 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | -7.29 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $0.67 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 14.27% |
| MG Value | $24.67 |
| Opinion | Fairly Valued |
| MG Grade | D+ |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $9.66 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $5.66 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 9.83% |
| Current Price | $18.75 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 75.99% |
ACI Worldwide Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.34 in 2012 to an estimated $0.67 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 9.83% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into ACI Worldwide Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $10.2. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 28.15, which was below the industry average of 35.13, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-7.27.
ACI Worldwide Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$7.27 |
| Graham Number | $10.20 |
| PEmg | 28.15 |
| Current Ratio | 0.75 |
| PB Ratio | 3.13 |
| Current Dividend | $0.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 0 |
[/not-level-free]
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 9/1/2016 |
| Total Current Assets | $262,768,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $352,223,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $652,387,000 |
| Total Assets | $1,802,186,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $1,316,993,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $1,107,424,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 116,118,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $0.78 |
| Dec2015 | $0.72 |
| Dec2014 | $0.58 |
| Dec2013 | $0.53 |
| Dec2012 | $0.41 |
| Dec2011 | $0.45 |
| Dec2010 | $0.27 |
| Dec2009 | $0.19 |
| Dec2008 | $0.10 |
| Sep2007 | -$0.08 |
| Sep2006 | $0.48 |
| Sep2005 | $0.37 |
| Sep2004 | $0.40 |
| Sep2003 | $0.13 |
| Sep2002 | $0.14 |
| Sep2001 | -$0.78 |
| Sep2000 | $0.02 |
| Sep1999 | $0.46 |
| Sep1998 | $0.34 |
| Sep1997 | $0.27 |
| Sep1996 | $0.16 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $0.67 |
| Dec2015 | $0.59 |
| Dec2014 | $0.49 |
| Dec2013 | $0.42 |
| Dec2012 | $0.34 |
| Dec2011 | $0.27 |
| Dec2010 | $0.18 |
| Dec2009 | $0.16 |
| Dec2008 | $0.18 |
| Sep2007 | $0.24 |
| Sep2006 | $0.37 |
| Sep2005 | $0.22 |
| Sep2004 | $0.09 |
| Sep2003 | -$0.04 |
| Sep2002 | -$0.07 |
| Sep2001 | -$0.10 |
| Sep2000 | $0.24 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
ACI Worldwide Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ACIW
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
Leave a Reply