National Retail Properties Inc Valuation – November 2016 $NNN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how National Retail Properties Inc (NNN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): National Retail Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company acquires, owns, invests in and develops properties that are leased primarily to retail tenants under long-term net leases and are held for investment. The Company owns over 2,050 Properties with a gross leasable area of approximately 24,964,000 square feet, located in approximately 50 states. The Company’s portfolio includes convenience stores; automotive service; family entertainment centers; theaters; automotive parts; health and fitness; recreational vehicle dealers, parts and accessories, and banks. The Company has operations in Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois, Georgia, Virginia, Indiana and Alabama, among others. The Company owns approximately 20 vacant, un-leased Properties.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:


Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,263,922,442 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.19 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -14.71% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 34.16 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.72 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.19 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -11.22 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value


EPSmg $1.23
MG Growth Estimate 4.05%
MG Value $20.46
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $17.86
MG Value based on 0% Growth $10.47
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.83%
Current Price $42.08
% of Intrinsic Value 205.72%

National Retail Properties, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.97 in 2012 to an estimated $1.23 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 12.83% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into National Retail Properties, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.72. The company pays a dividend of $1.76 per share, for a yield of 4.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 34.16, which was above the industry average of 34.03. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.25.

National Retail Properties, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research


Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.25
Graham Number $24.72
PEmg 34.16
Current Ratio 0.19
PB Ratio 1.72
Current Dividend $1.76
Dividend Yield 4.18%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20


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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/16/2016
Total Current Assets $41,284,000
Total Current Liabilities $216,992,000
Long-Term Debt $1,970,976,000
Total Assets $5,856,363,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,277,514,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 146,682,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.33
Dec2015 $1.20
Dec2014 $1.24
Dec2013 $1.10
Dec2012 $1.11
Dec2011 $0.96
Dec2010 $0.80
Dec2009 $0.60
Dec2008 $1.56
Dec2007 $2.26
Dec2006 $3.05
Dec2005 $1.56
Dec2004 $1.15
Dec2003 $1.13
Dec2002 $1.09
Dec2001 $0.91
Dec2000 $1.26
Dec1999 $1.16
Dec1998 $1.10
Dec1997 $1.25
Dec1996 $1.18

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.23
Dec2015 $1.16
Dec2014 $1.11
Dec2013 $1.00
Dec2012 $0.97
Dec2011 $1.01
Dec2010 $1.24
Dec2009 $1.58
Dec2008 $2.02
Dec2007 $2.11
Dec2006 $1.89
Dec2005 $1.26
Dec2004 $1.11
Dec2003 $1.09
Dec2002 $1.09
Dec2001 $1.10
Dec2000 $1.19

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

National Retail Properties Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $NNN

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.






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