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Canadian Food Processing Stocks

Saputo Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SAP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Saputo Inc (TSE:SAP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Saputo Inc. produces, markets and distributes dairy products, including cheese, fluid milk, extended shelf-life milk and cream products, cultured products and dairy ingredients. The Company has three geographic sectors. The Canada Sector consists of Dairy Division (Canada). The USA Sector aggregates the Cheese Division (USA) and the Dairy Foods Division (USA). The International Sector combines the Dairy Division (Argentina), the Dairy Ingredients Division and the Dairy Division (Australia). The Dairy Ingredients Division includes national and export ingredients sales from the North American divisions, as well as cheese exports from these same divisions. The Company’s products are sold under brand names, such as Saputo, Alexis de Portneuf, Armstrong, COON, Cracker Barrel, Dairyland, DairyStar, Friendship Dairies, Frigo Cheese Heads, La Paulina, Milk2Go/Lait’s Go, Neilson, Nutrilait, Scotsburn, Stella, Sungold, Treasure Cave and Woolwich Dairy.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

*Note – This is a Canadian company. The currency in use is the Canadian Dollar.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

moderngraham-valuation-of-tse-sap-december-2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $18,733,870,282 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.20 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 117.58% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 28.53 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.26 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.20 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.12 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

tse-sap-value-chart-december-2016

EPSmg $1.61
MG Growth Estimate 8.35%
MG Value $40.47
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $23.28
MG Value based on 0% Growth $13.65
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.02%
Current Price $45.81
% of Intrinsic Value 113.19%

Saputo Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.03 in 2013 to an estimated $1.61 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.02% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Saputo Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $21.62. The company pays a dividend of $0.42 per share, for a yield of 0.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 28.53, which was below the industry average of 30.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.03.

Saputo Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

tse-sap-charts-december-2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.03
Graham Number $21.62
PEmg 28.53
Current Ratio 2.20
PB Ratio 4.26
Current Dividend $0.42
Dividend Yield 0.92%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,316,800,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,053,500,000
Long-Term Debt $1,412,500,000
Total Assets $7,387,400,000
Intangible Assets $2,830,700,000
Total Liabilities $3,122,100,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 397,063,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.91
Mar2016 $1.51
Mar2015 $1.53
Mar2014 $1.35
Mar2013 $1.21
Mar2012 $0.93
Mar2011 $1.08
Mar2010 $0.92
Mar2009 $0.67
Mar2008 $0.69
Mar2007 $0.57
Mar2006 $0.46
Mar2005 $0.55
Mar2004 $0.51
Mar2003 $0.42
Mar2002 $0.39
Mar2001 $0.27
Mar2000 $0.25
Mar1999 $0.20
Mar1998 $0.12
Mar1997 $0.17

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.61
Mar2016 $1.40
Mar2015 $1.31
Mar2014 $1.16
Mar2013 $1.03
Mar2012 $0.92
Mar2011 $0.87
Mar2010 $0.73
Mar2009 $0.62
Mar2008 $0.58
Mar2007 $0.52
Mar2006 $0.48
Mar2005 $0.47
Mar2004 $0.41
Mar2003 $0.34
Mar2002 $0.28
Mar2001 $0.22

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Best Stocks to Invest In: the Food Processing Industry – August 2016
B&G Foods Inc Valuation – August 2016 $BGS
Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – August 2016 $TSN
Mondelez International Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MDLZ
Hormel Foods Corp Valuation – August 2016 $HRL
J.M. Smucker Co Valuation – August 2016 $SJM
General Mills Inc Valuation – August 2016 $GIS
Archer Daniels Midland Co – August 2016 $ADM
Coca-Cola Co Valuation – July 2016 $KO
Monster Beverage Corp Valuation – July 2016 $MNST

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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