Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Valuation – December 2016 $TMO
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. develops, manufactures and sells a range of products. The Company is a provider of analytical instruments, equipment, reagents and consumables, software and services for research, manufacturing, analysis, discovery and diagnostics. The company operates through four segments: Life Sciences Solutions, Analytical Instruments, Specialty Diagnostics, and Laboratory Products and Services. Through the Life Sciences Solutions segment, it provides reagents, instruments and consumables used in biological and medical research, discovery and production of new drugs and vaccines, as well as diagnosis of disease. Through the Analytical Instruments segment, it provides instruments, consumables, software and services. The Specialty Diagnostics segment offers diagnostic test kits, reagents, culture media, instruments and associated products. The Laboratory Products and Services segment offers self-manufactured and sourced products for the laboratory.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of TMO – December 2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $56,910,236,492 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.56 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 159.20% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 29.02 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 2.60 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.56 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 5.75 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $4.89 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 10.14% |
| MG Value | $140.71 |
| Opinion | Fairly Valued |
| MG Grade | C+ |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $70.89 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $41.55 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 10.26% |
| Current Price | $141.85 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 100.81% |
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.92 in 2012 to an estimated $4.89 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 10.26% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $85.1. The company pays a dividend of $0.6 per share, for a yield of 0.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 29.02, which was below the industry average of 40.07, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-45.67.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$45.67 |
| Graham Number | $85.10 |
| PEmg | 29.02 |
| Current Ratio | 1.56 |
| PB Ratio | 2.60 |
| Current Dividend | $0.60 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.42% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 0 |
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Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 9/1/2016 |
| Total Current Assets | $8,204,400,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $5,259,900,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $16,940,400,000 |
| Total Assets | $48,010,700,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $36,102,400,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $26,352,100,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 397,400,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $5.87 |
| Dec2015 | $4.92 |
| Dec2014 | $4.71 |
| Dec2013 | $3.48 |
| Dec2012 | $3.21 |
| Dec2011 | $3.46 |
| Dec2010 | $2.53 |
| Dec2009 | $2.01 |
| Dec2008 | $2.25 |
| Dec2007 | $1.72 |
| Dec2006 | $0.84 |
| Dec2005 | $1.36 |
| Dec2004 | $2.17 |
| Dec2003 | $1.20 |
| Dec2002 | $1.73 |
| Dec2001 | $0.00 |
| Dec2000 | -$0.22 |
| Dec1999 | -$1.12 |
| Dec1998 | $1.08 |
| Dec1997 | $1.41 |
| Dec1996 | $1.22 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $4.89 |
| Dec2015 | $4.25 |
| Dec2014 | $3.77 |
| Dec2013 | $3.18 |
| Dec2012 | $2.92 |
| Dec2011 | $2.64 |
| Dec2010 | $2.11 |
| Dec2009 | $1.82 |
| Dec2008 | $1.70 |
| Dec2007 | $1.44 |
| Dec2006 | $1.35 |
| Dec2005 | $1.50 |
| Dec2004 | $1.37 |
| Dec2003 | $0.76 |
| Dec2002 | $0.46 |
| Dec2001 | -$0.04 |
| Dec2000 | $0.11 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Analysis – 2015 Update $TMO | |
| 19 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 8/9/14 | |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $TMO |
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
