Freight Stocks

Celadon Group Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CGI

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Celadon Group Inc (CGI) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Celadon Group, Inc. (Celadon) is a truckload freight transportation provider. The Company’s segments are asset-based, asset-light, and equipment leasing and services. Its services involve point-to-point shipping for its customers within the United States, between the United States and Mexico, and between the United States and Canada. The Company’s primary asset-based services include the United States domestic dry van, refrigerated and flatbed service; cross-border service between the United States and each of Mexico and Canada; intra-Mexico and intra-Canada service; contract service; regional and specialized short haul service, and rail intermodal service. The Company’s primary asset-light services include freight brokerage, warehousing, less-than truckload consolidation and supply chain logistics services. Celadon’s equipment leasing and services segment consists primarily of leasing activities with independent contractors and other trucking fleets.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CGI – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $251,138,109 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.16 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 286.44% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.22 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.68 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.16 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 4.73 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.75
MG Growth Estimate -1.86%
MG Value $3.58
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $10.86
MG Value based on 0% Growth $6.36
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.86%
Current Price $9.15
% of Intrinsic Value 255.72%

Celadon Group, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.85 in 2013 to an estimated $0.75 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 1.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Celadon Group, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $0.08 per share, for a yield of 0.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.22, which was below the industry average of 21.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.47.

Celadon Group, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.47
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 12.22
Current Ratio 1.16
PB Ratio 0.68
Current Dividend $0.08
Dividend Yield 0.87%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $238,668,000
Total Current Liabilities $205,221,000
Long-Term Debt $158,152,000
Total Assets $1,094,756,000
Intangible Assets $62,451,000
Total Liabilities $721,253,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 27,616,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.12
Jun2016 $0.88
Jun2015 $1.52
Jun2014 $1.29
Jun2013 $1.17
Jun2012 $1.12
Jun2011 $0.67
Jun2010 $0.18
Jun2009 $0.12
Jun2008 $0.29
Jun2007 $0.94
Jun2006 $0.88
Jun2005 $0.55
Jun2004 -$0.01
Jun2003 $0.20
Jun2002 $0.10
Jun2001 -$0.31
Jun2000 -$0.12
Jun1999 $0.28
Jun1998 $0.35
Jun1997 $0.26

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.75
Jun2016 $1.19
Jun2015 $1.28
Jun2014 $1.07
Jun2013 $0.85
Jun2012 $0.62
Jun2011 $0.40
Jun2010 $0.33
Jun2009 $0.46
Jun2008 $0.60
Jun2007 $0.67
Jun2006 $0.47
Jun2005 $0.21
Jun2004 $0.02
Jun2003 $0.03
Jun2002 -$0.01
Jun2001 -$0.02

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CHRW
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Expeditors International of Washington Analysis – October 2015 Update $EXPD
FedEx Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $FDX
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. Analysis – 2015 Update $CHRW

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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