Ball Corporation Valuation – December 2016 $BLL
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Ball Corporation (BLL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Ball Corporation (Ball) is a supplier of metal packaging to the beverage, food, personal care and household products industries. The Company’s packaging products are produced for a range of end uses and are manufactured in facilities around the world. The Company operates in four segments: metal beverage packaging, Americas and Asia; metal beverage packaging, Europe; metal food and household products packaging, and aerospace and technologies. Its product lines include aluminum and steel beverage containers. The Company also produces steel food, aerosol, paint, general line and decorative specialty containers, as well as extruded aluminum aerosol and beverage containers and aluminum slugs. The Company sells its packaging products to multinational beverage, food, personal care and household products companies. Its aerospace business is engaged in the designing, development and manufacturing of aerospace systems for civil, commercial and national security aerospace markets.
[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
[/level-free]
[not-level-free]
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of BLL – December 2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $13,474,457,660 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.39 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 48.02% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 31.09 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 3.65 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.39 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 6.65 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $2.45 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 0.17% |
| MG Value | $21.71 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Grade | D |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $35.59 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $20.86 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 11.29% |
| Current Price | $76.31 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 351.43% |
Ball Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.43 in 2012 to an estimated $2.45 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Ball Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $32.43. The company pays a dividend of $0.52 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 31.09, which was below the industry average of 53.08, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-52.01.
Ball Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$52.01 |
| Graham Number | $32.43 |
| PEmg | 31.09 |
| Current Ratio | 1.39 |
| PB Ratio | 3.65 |
| Current Dividend | $0.52 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.68% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 0 |
[/not-level-free]
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 9/1/2016 |
| Total Current Assets | $4,104,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $2,943,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $7,724,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $17,060,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $7,257,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $13,347,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 177,702,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.20 |
| Dec2015 | $1.99 |
| Dec2014 | $3.30 |
| Dec2013 | $2.73 |
| Dec2012 | $2.50 |
| Dec2011 | $2.63 |
| Dec2010 | $2.55 |
| Dec2009 | $2.04 |
| Dec2008 | $1.65 |
| Dec2007 | $1.37 |
| Dec2006 | $1.57 |
| Dec2005 | $1.24 |
| Dec2004 | $1.33 |
| Dec2003 | $1.01 |
| Dec2002 | $0.68 |
| Dec2001 | -$0.46 |
| Dec2000 | $0.27 |
| Dec1999 | $0.40 |
| Dec1998 | $0.06 |
| Dec1997 | $0.22 |
| Dec1996 | $0.09 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.45 |
| Dec2015 | $2.60 |
| Dec2014 | $2.85 |
| Dec2013 | $2.58 |
| Dec2012 | $2.43 |
| Dec2011 | $2.28 |
| Dec2010 | $2.01 |
| Dec2009 | $1.69 |
| Dec2008 | $1.48 |
| Dec2007 | $1.37 |
| Dec2006 | $1.30 |
| Dec2005 | $1.03 |
| Dec2004 | $0.80 |
| Dec2003 | $0.48 |
| Dec2002 | $0.21 |
| Dec2001 | $0.02 |
| Dec2000 | $0.24 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
| Ball Corporation Analysis – 2015 Update $BLL | |
| 19 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 8/9/14 | |
| Ball Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $BLL |
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
