Ingredion Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $INGR
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – DecemberÂ 2016.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Ingredion Inc (INGR)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Ingredion Incorporated (Ingredion) is a global ingredients solutions provider. The Company is engaged in the production and sale of starches and sweeteners for a range of industries. Its operations are classified into four segments: North America, South America, Asia Pacific, and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). The Company’s North America segment includes businesses in the United States, Canada and Mexico. The South America segment includes businesses in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and the Southern Cone of South America, which includes Argentina, Chile, Peru and Uruguay. Ingredion’s Asia Pacific segment includes businesses in South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, China, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, India, Australia and New Zealand. Its EMEA segment includes businesses in the United Kingdom, Germany, South Africa, Pakistan and Kenya. The Company’s product line includes starches and sweeteners, animal feed products and edible corn oil.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of INGR – December 2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$9,150,717,989||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||2.99||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||156.99%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||21.85||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||3.65||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||2.99||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||1.17||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||6.57%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$83.16|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$48.75|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||6.67%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||100.97%|
Ingredion Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.99 in 2012 to an estimated $5.74 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 6.67% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Ingredion Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $73.64. The company pays a dividend of $1.85 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 21.85, which was below the industry average of 30.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-8.63.
Ingredion Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$8.63|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||6|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||9/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$2,381,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$796,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||74,300,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$6.84|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$5.74|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. Â This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.