Autodesk Inc Valuation – December 2016 $ADSK

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Autodesk Inc (ADSK) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Autodesk, Inc. (Autodesk) is a design software and services company, offering customers productive business solutions through technology products and services. The Company serves customers in the architecture, engineering and construction; manufacturing, and digital media, consumer and entertainment industries. It operates in four segments: Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC), Platform Solutions and Emerging Business (PSEB), Manufacturing (MFG), and Media and Entertainment (M&E). The PSEB, AEC and MFG segments offer a range of services, including consulting, support and training. The M&E segment offers software products to professionals, post-production facilities and broadcasters for a range of applications. Its software products enable its customers to experience their ideas before they are real by allowing them to imagine, design and create their ideas and to visualize, simulate and analyze real-world performance in the design process by creating digital prototypes.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ADSK – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $17,382,638,403 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.46 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -232.54% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -89.55 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 16.10 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.46 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.03 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$0.86
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$12.44
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$7.29
Market Implied Growth Rate -49.02%
Current Price $76.83
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Autodesk, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.95 in 2013 to an estimated $-0.86 for 2017. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Autodesk, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -89.55, which was below the industry average of 38.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-6.46.

Autodesk, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.46
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -89.55
Current Ratio 1.46
PB Ratio 16.10
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 10/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,332,100,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,597,600,000
Long-Term Debt $1,489,900,000
Total Assets $4,829,200,000
Intangible Assets $1,725,800,000
Total Liabilities $3,768,600,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 222,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$2.23
Jan2016 -$1.46
Jan2015 $0.35
Jan2014 $1.00
Jan2013 $1.07
Jan2012 $1.22
Jan2011 $0.90
Jan2010 $0.25
Jan2009 $0.80
Jan2008 $1.47
Jan2007 $1.19
Jan2006 $1.35
Jan2005 $0.90
Jan2004 $0.52
Jan2003 $0.14
Jan2002 $0.40
Jan2001 $0.40
Jan2000 $0.04
Jan1999 $0.41
Jan1998 $0.23
Jan1997 $0.22

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.86
Jan2016 $0.03
Jan2015 $0.82
Jan2014 $1.00
Jan2013 $0.95
Jan2012 $0.90
Jan2011 $0.80
Jan2010 $0.84
Jan2009 $1.14
Jan2008 $1.23
Jan2007 $1.02
Jan2006 $0.84
Jan2005 $0.55
Jan2004 $0.35
Jan2003 $0.27
Jan2002 $0.32
Jan2001 $0.27

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – August 2015
Autodesk Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $ADSK
47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/16/15
Autodesk Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $ADSK
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Red Hat Inc Valuation – June 2016 $RHT
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Alphabet Inc Valuation – June 2016 $GOOGL
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Citrix Systems Inc Valuation – May 2016 $CTXS

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.


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