Steve Madden Ltd Valuation – Initial Coverage $SHOO
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – DecemberÂ 2016.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Steve Madden Ltd (SHOO)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Steven Madden, Ltd. and its subsidiaries design, source, market and sell name brand and private label footwear for women, men and children. The Company operates through five segments: Wholesale Footwear, which consists of brands, including Steve Madden Women’s and Dolce Vita; Wholesale Accessories, which includes Betseyville and Luv Betse accessories brands; First Cost, which earns commissions for serving as a buying agent for footwear products under private labels for market merchandisers; Retail, which includes Steve Madden stores located in shopping malls and in urban street locations across the United States, Canada, Mexico and South Africa, and Licensing, which is engaged in the licensing of the Steve Madden and Madden Girl trademarks for use in connection with the manufacture and sale of outerwear and men’s leather accessories.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of SHOO – January 2017
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$2,097,632,986||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||2.63||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||216.99%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||18.46||Pass|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||2.85||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||2.63||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||0.00||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||5.46%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$27.26|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$15.98|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||4.98%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||95.06%|
Steven Madden, Ltd. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.38 in 2012 to an estimated $1.88 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.98% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Steven Madden, Ltd. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $22.88. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.46, which was below the industry average of 22.16, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $4.5.
Steven Madden, Ltd. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$4.50|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||9/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$520,255,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$197,771,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||59,329,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.95|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.88|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.