Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – DecemberÂ 2016.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Surge Energy Inc (TSE:SGY)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Surge Energy Inc. is a Canada-based oil and gas exploration, development and production company. The Company’s principal oil and natural gas producing properties are located in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and focused on over three core areas: Western Alberta, Southeast Alberta and Southwest Saskatchewan. The properties in Northern Alberta include Valhalla/Wembley, Nipisi, Windfall and Nevis. The Sparky assets consist of over four main fields spread between Provost and Wainwright in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan. The Valhalla/Wembley property is located in northwestern Alberta, over 40 kilometers northwest of Grand Prairie. The Nipisi property is located over 50 kilometers north of the town of Slave Lake, in northwestern Alberta. The Slave Point production is from horizontal wells. The Windfall property is located in western Alberta near Whitecourt. The Nevis property is located over 60 kilometers east of Red Deer, Alberta.
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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation. Â In addition,Â here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-SGY – January 2017
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$754,003,090||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.71||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-381.40%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||-8.75||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||0.93||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.71||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-12.80||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-4.25%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||-$5.50|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||-$3.22|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||-8.63%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Surge Energy Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $-0.27 in 2012 to an estimated $-0.38 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Surge Energy Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $0.13 per share, for a yield of 3.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -8.75, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-1.36.
Surge Energy Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$1.36|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||9/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$27,251,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$38,174,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||221,615,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$0.07|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$0.38|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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