Environmental Stocks

Republic Services Inc Valuation – January 2017 $RSG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Republic Services Inc (RSG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Republic Services, Inc. is a provider of non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, recycling and energy services in the United States. The Company operates through three segments: East, Central and West. The Company operates in over 40 states and Puerto Rico through approximately 340 collection operations, over 200 transfer stations, over 190 active landfills, approximately 70 recycling centers, approximately 10 treatment, recovery and disposal facilities, and over 10 salt water disposal wells. It also operates approximately 70 landfill gas and renewable energy projects. It has post-closure responsibility for approximately 130 closed landfills. The Company provides residential, small-container commercial and large-container industrial solid waste collection services. Its residential collection business involves the curbside collection of waste for transport to transfer stations, or directly to landfills or recycling centers.

RSG Chart

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of RSG – January 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $19,520,485,416 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.72 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 70.44% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 32.33 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.59 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.72 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -14.99 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.78
MG Growth Estimate 4.14%
MG Value $29.88
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $25.81
MG Value based on 0% Growth $15.13
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.91%
Current Price $57.54
% of Intrinsic Value 192.55%

Republic Services, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.39 in 2012 to an estimated $1.78 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Republic Services, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $29.79. The company pays a dividend of $1.22 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 32.33, which was above the industry average of 29.32. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-34.07.

Republic Services, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$34.07
Graham Number $29.79
PEmg 32.33
Current Ratio 0.72
PB Ratio 2.59
Current Dividend $1.22
Dividend Yield 2.12%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,301,600,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,817,900,000
Long-Term Debt $7,739,600,000
Total Assets $20,661,700,000
Intangible Assets $11,364,500,000
Total Liabilities $13,022,500,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 344,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.76
Dec2015 $2.13
Dec2014 $1.53
Dec2013 $1.62
Dec2012 $1.55
Dec2011 $1.56
Dec2010 $1.32
Dec2009 $1.30
Dec2008 $0.37
Dec2007 $1.51
Dec2006 $1.39
Dec2005 $1.20
Dec2004 $1.08
Dec2003 $0.78
Dec2002 $0.96
Dec2001 $0.49
Dec2000 $0.84
Dec1999 $0.76
Dec1998 $0.75

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.78
Dec2015 $1.75
Dec2014 $1.55
Dec2013 $1.53
Dec2012 $1.39
Dec2011 $1.28
Dec2010 $1.15
Dec2009 $1.10
Dec2008 $1.04
Dec2007 $1.31
Dec2006 $1.17
Dec2005 $1.00
Dec2004 $0.88
Dec2003 $0.78
Dec2002 $0.77
Dec2001 $0.64
Dec2000 $0.63

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Republic Services Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $RSG
20 Companies to Research This Week – 9/6/14
Republic Services Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – September 2014 $RSG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Clean Harbors Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CLH
Waste Management Inc Valuation – August 2016 $WM
Stericycle Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $SRCL
Republic Services Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $RSG
Waste Management Inc. Analysis – 2015 Update $WM
Stericycle Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $SRCL
Republic Services Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – September 2014 $RSG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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