Pharmaceuticals Stocks

Abbott Laboratories Valuation – January 2017 $ABT

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Abbott Laboratories (ABT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Abbott Laboratories (Abbott) is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and sale of a line of healthcare products. The Company operates in four business segments: Established Pharmaceutical Products, Diagnostic Products, Nutritional Products and Vascular Products. The Established Pharmaceutical Products segment includes the international sales of a line of branded generic pharmaceutical products. The Nutrition Products segment includes the sales of a line of adult and pediatric nutritional products. The Diagnostic Products includes the sales of diagnostic systems and tests for blood banks, hospitals, commercial laboratories and alternate-care testing sites. The Vascular Products includes the sales of coronary, endovascular, structural heart, vessel closure and other medical device products.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ABT – January 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $69,531,384,871 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.56 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -40.35% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.40 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.86 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.56 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.28 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.88
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $27.32
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.01
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.45%
Current Price $40.31
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Abbott Laboratories does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.33 in 2012 to an estimated $1.88 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.45% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Abbott Laboratories revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $18.08. The company pays a dividend of $1.02 per share, for a yield of 2.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 21.4, which was below the industry average of 28.95, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.89.

Abbott Laboratories scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.89
Graham Number $18.08
PEmg 21.40
Current Ratio 1.56
PB Ratio 2.86
Current Dividend $1.02
Dividend Yield 2.53%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $12,978,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $8,321,000,000
Long-Term Debt $5,975,000,000
Total Assets $39,497,000,000
Intangible Assets $12,486,000,000
Total Liabilities $18,721,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,476,366,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.03
Dec2015 $2.92
Dec2014 $1.49
Dec2013 $1.62
Dec2012 $3.72
Dec2011 $3.01
Dec2010 $2.96
Dec2009 $3.69
Dec2008 $3.12
Dec2007 $2.31
Dec2006 $1.12
Dec2005 $2.16
Dec2004 $2.06
Dec2003 $1.75
Dec2002 $1.78
Dec2001 $0.99
Dec2000 $1.78
Dec1999 $1.57
Dec1998 $1.50
Dec1997 $1.32
Dec1996 $1.19

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.88
Dec2015 $2.39
Dec2014 $2.27
Dec2013 $2.77
Dec2012 $3.33
Dec2011 $3.10
Dec2010 $2.98
Dec2009 $2.82
Dec2008 $2.31
Dec2007 $1.89
Dec2006 $1.71
Dec2005 $1.92
Dec2004 $1.76
Dec2003 $1.60
Dec2002 $1.52
Dec2001 $1.41
Dec2000 $1.57

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – March 2015
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/21/15
Abbott Laboratories Annual Valuation – 2015 $ABT
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/13/14
Abbott Labs Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $ABT

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Johnson & Johnson Valuation – January 2017 $JNJ
Allergan plc Valuation – January 2017 $AGN
Impax Laboratories Inc – Initial Coverage $IPXL
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – December 2016 $ALXN
Akorn Inc Valuation – December 2016 $AKRX
SciClone Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SCLN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – November 2016 $REGN
Merck & Co Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MRK
Mallinckrodt PLC Valuation – August 2016 $MNK
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – August 2016 $VRTX

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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