Fertilizer Stocks

Scotts Miracle-Gro Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SMG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Scotts Miracle-Gro Inc (SMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (Scotts Miracle-Gro) is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products. The Company’s segments include Global Consumer. In North America, its brands include Scotts and Turf Builder lawn and grass seed products; Miracle-Gro, Nature’s Care, Scotts, LiquaFeed and Osmocote gardening and landscape products; and Ortho, Roundup, Home Defense and Tomcat branded insect control, weed control and rodent control products. In the United Kingdom, its brands include Miracle-Gro plant fertilizers; Roundup, Weedol and Pathclear herbicides; EverGreen lawn fertilizers, and Levington gardening and landscape products.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SMG – January 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $5,577,003,828 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.67 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 129.40% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.49 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.06 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.67 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.84 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.80
MG Growth Estimate 8.94%
MG Value $100.17
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $55.04
MG Value based on 0% Growth $32.27
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.00%
Current Price $92.98
% of Intrinsic Value 92.82%

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.38 in 2013 to an estimated $3.8 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 8% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Scotts Miracle-Gro Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $33.48. The company pays a dividend of $1.91 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.49, which was above the industry average of 13.11. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.77.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.77
Graham Number $33.48
PEmg 24.49
Current Ratio 1.67
PB Ratio 8.06
Current Dividend $1.91
Dividend Yield 2.05%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $991,700,000
Total Current Liabilities $593,100,000
Long-Term Debt $1,131,100,000
Total Assets $2,808,800,000
Intangible Assets $1,124,100,000
Total Liabilities $2,093,600,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 62,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.20
Sep2016 $5.09
Sep2015 $2.57
Sep2014 $2.65
Sep2013 $2.57
Sep2012 $1.71
Sep2011 $2.54
Sep2010 $3.02
Sep2009 $2.32
Sep2008 -$0.17
Sep2007 $1.69
Sep2006 $1.91
Sep2005 $1.47
Sep2004 $1.52
Sep2003 $1.62
Sep2002 $1.31
Sep2001 $0.25
Sep2000 $1.13
Sep1999 $1.04
Sep1998 $0.60
Sep1997 $0.68

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.80
Sep2016 $3.37
Sep2015 $2.47
Sep2014 $2.45
Sep2013 $2.38
Sep2012 $2.15
Sep2011 $2.21
Sep2010 $1.94
Sep2009 $1.42
Sep2008 $1.07
Sep2007 $1.68
Sep2006 $1.64
Sep2005 $1.41
Sep2004 $1.31
Sep2003 $1.16
Sep2002 $0.91
Sep2001 $0.72

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

CF Industries Holdings Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CF
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Mosaic Company Valuation – October 2015 Update $MOS
CF Industries Holdings Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $CF
Monsanto Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $MON
Mosaic Company Analysis – July 2015 Update $MOS
CF Industries Holdings Analysis – June 2015 Update $CF
Mosaic Inc. Quarterly Valuation – April 2015 $MOS
CF Industries Holdings Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $CF

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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