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Expedia Inc Valuation – February 2017 $EXPE

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Expedia Inc (EXPE) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Expedia, Inc. is an online travel company. The Company makes travel products and services available, on a standalone and package basis, provided by various lodging properties, airlines, car rental companies, destination service providers, cruise lines and other travel product and service companies. Its Core OTA segment provides a range of travel and advertising services, through a range of brands, including and in the United States and localized Expedia and Websites throughout the world,, Expedia Affiliate Network,, Travelocity, Venere, Wotif Group,, and Classic Vacations. Its trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from its hotel metasearch Websites. Its Egencia segment, which also includes Orbitz for Business, provides managed travel services to corporate customers. Its HomeAway segment operates an online marketplace for the vacation rental industry.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EXPE – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $18,205,962,616 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.55 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -180.38% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 37.54 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.82 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.55 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -1.07 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.24
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $124.64
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $46.94
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.52
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.52%
Current Price $121.53
% of Intrinsic Value 97.51%

Expedia Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.26 in 2012 to an estimated $3.24 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 14.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Expedia Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $36.54. The company pays a dividend of $0.98 per share, for a yield of 0.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 37.54, which was above the industry average of 31.53. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-55.93.

Expedia Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$55.93
Graham Number $36.54
PEmg 37.54
Current Ratio 0.55
PB Ratio 4.82
Current Dividend $0.98
Dividend Yield 0.81%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4


Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,620,294,000
Total Current Liabilities $6,619,438,000
Long-Term Debt $3,204,210,000
Total Assets $16,131,766,000
Intangible Assets $10,600,819,000
Total Liabilities $12,246,010,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 154,236,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.29
Dec2015 $5.70
Dec2014 $2.99
Dec2013 $1.67
Dec2012 $2.00
Dec2011 $3.41
Dec2010 $2.93
Dec2009 $2.06
Dec2008 -$17.60
Dec2007 $1.88
Dec2006 $1.40
Dec2005 $1.30
Dec2004 $0.00
Dec2003 $0.66
Dec2002 $0.46
Dec2001 $0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.24
Dec2015 $3.53
Dec2014 $2.49
Dec2013 $2.30
Dec2012 $1.26
Dec2011 $0.11
Dec2010 -$1.65
Dec2009 -$3.36
Dec2008 -$4.91
Dec2007 $1.30
Dec2006 $0.93
Dec2005 $0.63
Dec2004 $0.28
Dec2003 $0.35
Dec2002 $0.17
Dec2001 $0.02

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Expedia Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $EXPE
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 9/27/2014
Expedia Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $EXPE

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Priceline Group Inc Valuation – July 2016 $PCLN
TripAdvisor Inc Valuation – June 2016 $TRIP
TripAdvisor Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $TRIP
Expedia Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $EXPE
Tripadvisor Stock Analysis – August 2015 Update $TRIP
Priceline Group Annual Valuation – 2015 $PCLN
Tripadvisor Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $TRIP
Tripadvisor Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $TRIP
Priceline Group Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $PCLN
Tripadvisor Inc. Quarterly Valuation – November 2014 $TRIP


The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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