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Ameren Corp Valuation – February 2017 $AEE

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Ameren Corp (AEE) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Ameren Corporation (Ameren) is a public utility holding company. Ameren’s primary assets are its equity interests in its subsidiaries, including Union Electric Company (doing business as Ameren Missouri) and Ameren Illinois Company (Ameren Illinois). Ameren operates through two segments: Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois. Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois each have one segment. The Ameren Missouri segment for both Ameren and Ameren Missouri includes all the operations of Ameren Missouri. The Ameren Illinois segment for both Ameren and Ameren Illinois consists of all of the operations of Ameren Illinois. Ameren’s subsidiaries are separate, independent legal entities with separate businesses, assets, and liabilities. Ameren Missouri operates an electric generation, transmission, and distribution business and a natural gas transmission and distribution business in Missouri. Ameren Illinois operates an electric and natural gas transmission and distribution businesses in Illinois.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AEE – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

 

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,789,470,416 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.70 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -11.23% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 27.09 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.79 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.70 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -9.55 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.95
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $75.23
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.33
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.61
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.29%
Current Price $52.93
% of Intrinsic Value 70.36%

Ameren Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.08 in 2012 to an estimated $1.95 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 9.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Ameren Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $42.28. The company pays a dividend of $1.7 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 27.09, which was above the industry average of 23.36. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-63.16.

Ameren Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$63.16
Graham Number $42.28
PEmg 27.09
Current Ratio 0.70
PB Ratio 1.79
Current Dividend $1.70
Dividend Yield 3.21%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

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Useful Links:

 

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GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,599,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,291,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,607,000,000
Total Assets $24,134,000,000
Intangible Assets $411,000,000
Total Liabilities $16,941,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 242,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.68
Dec2015 $2.59
Dec2014 $2.40
Dec2013 $1.18
Dec2012 -$4.01
Dec2011 $2.15
Dec2010 $0.58
Dec2009 $2.78
Dec2008 $2.88
Dec2007 $2.98
Dec2006 $2.66
Dec2005 $3.02
Dec2004 $2.84
Dec2003 $3.25
Dec2002 $2.61
Dec2001 $3.40
Dec2000 $3.33
Dec1999 $2.81
Dec1998 $2.82
Dec1997 $2.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.95
Dec2015 $1.35
Dec2014 $0.64
Dec2013 $0.02
Dec2012 -$0.08
Dec2011 $2.01
Dec2010 $2.09
Dec2009 $2.85
Dec2008 $2.88
Dec2007 $2.90
Dec2006 $2.87
Dec2005 $2.99
Dec2004 $3.01
Dec2003 $3.09
Dec2002 $3.01
Dec2001 $3.12
Dec2000 $2.75

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Ameren Corporation Analysis – 2015 Update $AEE
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – June 14, 2014
Ameren Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $AEE

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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