Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a package delivery company. The Company is a provider of global supply chain management solutions. It delivers packages each business day in over 220 countries and territories. The Company operates in three segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain & Freight. The Company offers a spectrum of the United States domestic guaranteed ground and air package transportation services. The Company’s International Package segment includes the small package operations in Europe, Asia, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East and Africa. UPS offers a selection of guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services. The Supply Chain & Freight segment consists of the Company’s forwarding and logistics services, truckload freight brokerage, UPS Freight and its financial offerings through UPS Capital. UPS offers a portfolio of guaranteed and non-guaranteed global air freight services.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of UPS – February 2017
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $94,445,121,391 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.13 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 78.48% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 22.47 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 219.18 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.13 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 8.08 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $4.78 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 8.02% |
| MG Value | $117.21 |
| Opinion | Fairly Valued |
| MG Grade | D+ |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $69.26 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $40.60 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 6.99% |
| Current Price | $107.34 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 91.58% |
United Parcel Service, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.11 in 2013 to an estimated $4.78 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 6.99% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into United Parcel Service, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $8.02. The company pays a dividend of $3.12 per share, for a yield of 2.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.47, which was above the industry average of 22.36. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-30.35.
United Parcel Service, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$30.35 |
| Graham Number | $8.02 |
| PEmg | 22.47 |
| Current Ratio | 1.13 |
| PB Ratio | 219.18 |
| Current Dividend | $3.12 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.91% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 8 |
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| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2016 |
| Total Current Assets | $13,388,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $11,855,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $12,394,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $40,401,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $39,972,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 876,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $5.79 |
| Dec2016 | $3.87 |
| Dec2015 | $5.35 |
| Dec2014 | $3.28 |
| Dec2013 | $4.61 |
| Dec2012 | $0.83 |
| Dec2011 | $3.84 |
| Dec2010 | $3.33 |
| Dec2009 | $2.14 |
| Dec2008 | $2.94 |
| Dec2007 | $0.36 |
| Dec2006 | $3.86 |
| Dec2005 | $3.47 |
| Dec2004 | $2.93 |
| Dec2003 | $2.55 |
| Dec2002 | $2.81 |
| Dec2001 | $2.10 |
| Dec2000 | $2.50 |
| Dec1999 | $0.77 |
| Dec1998 | $1.57 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $4.78 |
| Dec2016 | $4.04 |
| Dec2015 | $3.95 |
| Dec2014 | $3.22 |
| Dec2013 | $3.11 |
| Dec2012 | $2.45 |
| Dec2011 | $3.01 |
| Dec2010 | $2.57 |
| Dec2009 | $2.32 |
| Dec2008 | $2.51 |
| Dec2007 | $2.40 |
| Dec2006 | $3.33 |
| Dec2005 | $2.96 |
| Dec2004 | $2.67 |
| Dec2003 | $2.40 |
| Dec2002 | $2.20 |
| Dec2001 | $1.73 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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