Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – FebruaryÂ 2017.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Carter’s Inc (CRI)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Carter’s, Inc. (Carter’s) is a marketer of apparel for babies and young children in the United States and Canada. The Company operates through five segments: Carter’s Retail, Carter’s Wholesale, OshKosh Retail, OshKosh Wholesale and International. Its international segment includes Company-operated retail stores, wholesale and online operations in addition to royalty income from its international licensees. The Company owns two brand names in the children’s apparel industry: Carter’s and OshKosh B’gosh (OshKosh). The Company offers various product categories, including baby, sleepwear, playclothes and related accessories. The Company operates approximately 590 Carter’s and over 240 OshKosh stores in the United States, and its products are sold through approximately 150 Company-operated stores in Canada in addition to its international wholesale, licensing and online channels. It has collaborated with approximately 30 licensees to sell the Carter’s and OshKosh brands internationally.
To read the detailsÂ of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation. Â In addition,Â here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
[otw_shortcode_button href=”https://www.moderngraham.com/moderngraham-stocks-screens/” size=”medium” icon_position=”left” shape=”square”]Learn More About Premium Membership[/otw_shortcode_button]
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of CRI – February 2017
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$4,165,907,018||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||3.70||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||530.77%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||20.40||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||5.44||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||3.70||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||0.76||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||12.49%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$59.98|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$35.16|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||5.95%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||60.95%|
Carter’s, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.26 in 2012 to an estimated $4.14 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.95% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Carter’s, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $41.94. The company pays a dividend of $1.21 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.4, which was below the industry average of 22.16, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.33.
Carter’s, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$2.33|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||4|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||9/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$1,045,314,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$282,145,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||49,987,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$5.00|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.14|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
Leave a Reply