Carter’s Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CRI

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Carter’s Inc (CRI) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Carter’s, Inc. (Carter’s) is a marketer of apparel for babies and young children in the United States and Canada. The Company operates through five segments: Carter’s Retail, Carter’s Wholesale, OshKosh Retail, OshKosh Wholesale and International. Its international segment includes Company-operated retail stores, wholesale and online operations in addition to royalty income from its international licensees. The Company owns two brand names in the children’s apparel industry: Carter’s and OshKosh B’gosh (OshKosh). The Company offers various product categories, including baby, sleepwear, playclothes and related accessories. The Company operates approximately 590 Carter’s and over 240 OshKosh stores in the United States, and its products are sold through approximately 150 Company-operated stores in Canada in addition to its international wholesale, licensing and online channels. It has collaborated with approximately 30 licensees to sell the Carter’s and OshKosh brands internationally.

CRI Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CRI – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,165,907,018 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.70 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 530.77% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.40 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.44 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.70 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.76 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.14
MG Growth Estimate 12.49%
MG Value $138.48
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $59.98
MG Value based on 0% Growth $35.16
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.95%
Current Price $84.40
% of Intrinsic Value 60.95%

Carter’s, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.26 in 2012 to an estimated $4.14 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.95% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Carter’s, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $41.94. The company pays a dividend of $1.21 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.4, which was below the industry average of 22.16, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.33.

Carter’s, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.33
Graham Number $41.94
PEmg 20.40
Current Ratio 3.70
PB Ratio 5.44
Current Dividend $1.21
Dividend Yield 1.43%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4


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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,045,314,000
Total Current Liabilities $282,145,000
Long-Term Debt $580,613,000
Total Assets $1,937,705,000
Intangible Assets $485,929,000
Total Liabilities $1,161,571,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 49,987,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.00
Dec2015 $4.50
Dec2014 $3.62
Dec2013 $2.75
Dec2012 $2.69
Dec2011 $1.94
Dec2010 $2.46
Dec2009 $1.97
Dec2008 $1.33
Dec2007 -$1.22
Dec2006 $1.42
Dec2005 $0.78
Dec2004 $0.83
Dec2003 $0.46
Dec2002 $0.41
Dec2001 $0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.14
Dec2015 $3.50
Dec2014 $2.90
Dec2013 $2.48
Dec2012 $2.26
Dec2011 $1.79
Dec2010 $1.54
Dec2009 $1.01
Dec2008 $0.56
Dec2007 $0.27
Dec2006 $0.94
Dec2005 $0.63
Dec2004 $0.49
Dec2003 $0.27
Dec2002 $0.15
Dec2001 $0.02

Recommended Reading:

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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