Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – FebruaryÂ 2017.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Denbury Resources Inc (DNR)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Denbury Resources Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas company. The Company’s operations are focused on two operating areas: the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions. Its properties with proved and producing reserves in the Gulf Coast region are situated in Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana and Alabama, and in the Rocky Mountain region are situated in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming. It has estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves of over 288.6 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE). Its primary Gulf Coast carbon dioxide (CO2) source is Jackson Dome, which is located near Jackson, Mississippi. Its mature group of properties includes the initial CO2 field, Little Creek, as well as various other fields, including Brookhaven, Cranfield, Eucutta, Lockhart Crossing, Mallalieu, Martinville, McComb and Soso fields. Its LaBarge Field is located in southwestern Wyoming. It holds interest in LaBarge Field, which consists of over 1.2 trillion cubic feet of proved CO2 reserves.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of DNR – February 2017
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$1,251,575,725||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.40||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-654.91%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||-0.97||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||1.48||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.40||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-11.97||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-4.25%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||-$47.98|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||-$28.12|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||-4.74%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Denbury Resources Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.04 in 2012 to an estimated $-3.31 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Denbury Resources Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $0.06 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -0.97, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-9.8.
Denbury Resources Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$9.80|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||9/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$162,717,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$405,245,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||388,572,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$1.67|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$3.31|
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The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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