Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Home Depot Inc (HD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Home Depot, Inc. (The Home Depot) is a home improvement retailer. The Company sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products, and provides various services. The Home Depot stores serve three primary customer groups: do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, do-it-for-me (DIFM) customers and professional customers. Its DIY customers are home owners who purchase products and complete their own projects and installations. The Company assists these customers with specific product and installation questions both in its stores and through online resources and other media designed to provide product and project knowledge. Its DIFM customers are home owners who purchase materials themselves and hire third parties to complete the project or installation. Professional Customers are primarily professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, repairmen, installers, small business owners and tradesmen.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$179,066,664,798||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.34||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||216.67%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||27.44||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||31.69||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.34||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||4.54||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$76.60|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$44.90|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||9.47%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||71.27%|
Home Depot Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.36 in 2013 to an estimated $5.28 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 9.47% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Home Depot Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $26.06. The company pays a dividend of $2.66 per share, for a yield of 1.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 27.44, which was below the industry average of 28.49, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.89.
Home Depot Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$15.89|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||7|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||10/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$19,348,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$14,431,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||1,229,000,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$6.55|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$5.28|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
|Home Depot Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $HD|
|30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/15/14|
|Home Depot Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $HD|
|ModernGraham Valuation: Home Depot (HD)|
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author held a long position in Home Depot (HD) but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.