Suncor Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SU
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Suncor Energy Inc (TSE:SU) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) is an integrated energy company. The Company is focused on developing Canada’s petroleum resource basin, Athabasca oil sands. The Company operates in three business segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production (E&P), and Refining and Marketing. The Company’s Oil Sands segment includes Oil Sands operations and Oil Sands ventures operations. Its E&P segment consists of offshore operations off the east coast of Canada and in the North Sea, and onshore assets in North America, Libya and Syria. The Company’s Refining and Marketing segment is engaged in Refining and Supply, and Marketing operations. In addition, it explores for, acquires, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas in Canada and internationally. It transports and refines crude oil, and markets petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. It markets third-party petroleum products. Suncor also conducts energy trading activities.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-SU – March 2017
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $69,929,259,514 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.36 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | -86.17% | Fail | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 49.50 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 1.56 | Pass | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.36 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 5.55 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Fail | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $0.84 |
| MG Growth Estimate | -4.25% |
| MG Value | $0.00 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Grade | D+ |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $12.25 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $7.18 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 20.49% |
| Current Price | $41.79 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | N/A |
Suncor Energy Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.26 in 2013 to an estimated $0.84 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 20.49% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Suncor Energy Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $33.76. The company pays a dividend of $1.16 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 49.48, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.79.
Suncor Energy Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$19.79 |
| Graham Number | $33.76 |
| PEmg | 49.48 |
| Current Ratio | 1.36 |
| PB Ratio | 1.56 |
| Current Dividend | $1.16 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.78% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 8 |
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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2016 |
| Total Current Assets | $11,019,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $8,117,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $16,103,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $88,702,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $3,075,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $44,072,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 1,670,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $1.89 |
| Dec2016 | $0.27 |
| Dec2015 | -$1.38 |
| Dec2014 | $1.84 |
| Dec2013 | $2.60 |
| Dec2012 | $1.76 |
| Dec2011 | $2.67 |
| Dec2010 | $2.43 |
| Dec2009 | $0.95 |
| Dec2008 | $2.26 |
| Dec2007 | $3.17 |
| Dec2006 | $3.16 |
| Dec2005 | $1.24 |
| Dec2004 | $1.17 |
| Dec2003 | $1.13 |
| Dec2002 | $0.81 |
| Dec2001 | $0.39 |
| Dec2000 | $0.39 |
| Dec1999 | $0.18 |
| Dec1998 | $0.20 |
| Dec1997 | $0.26 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $0.84 |
| Dec2016 | $0.55 |
| Dec2015 | $0.96 |
| Dec2014 | $2.18 |
| Dec2013 | $2.26 |
| Dec2012 | $2.06 |
| Dec2011 | $2.24 |
| Dec2010 | $2.15 |
| Dec2009 | $2.06 |
| Dec2008 | $2.47 |
| Dec2007 | $2.38 |
| Dec2006 | $1.82 |
| Dec2005 | $1.08 |
| Dec2004 | $0.93 |
| Dec2003 | $0.73 |
| Dec2002 | $0.49 |
| Dec2001 | $0.32 |
Recommended Reading:
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
