Canadian Software Stocks

Constellation Software Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CSU

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Constellation Software Inc (TSE:CSU) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Constellation Software Inc. is engaged in the development, installation and customization of software. The Company acquires, manages and builds vertical market software (VMS) businesses. The Company’s segments include public sector and private sector. The public sector segment develops and distributes software solutions primarily to government and government-related customers. Its public sector segment includes Volaris Operating Group, Harris Operating Group and Total Specific Solutions Operating Group. The private sector segment develops and distributes software solutions primarily to commercial customers. Its private sector segment includes Jonas Operating Group, Perseus Operating Group and Vela Operating Group. Its geographical segments include Canada, USA and UK/Europe. It serves various markets, such as communications, credit unions, drink distribution, tour operators, auto clubs, textiles and apparel, hospitality, notaries, home and community care, and long-term care.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CSU – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $13,332,578,473 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.89 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1834.02% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 37.54 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 21.90 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.89 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -3.41 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $16.80
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $646.73
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $243.57
MG Value based on 0% Growth $142.79
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.52%
Current Price $630.65
% of Intrinsic Value 97.51%

Constellation Software Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.45 in 2013 to an estimated $16.8 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 14.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Constellation Software Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $139.24. The company pays a dividend of $5.26 per share, for a yield of 0.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 37.54, which was below the industry average of 38.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-41.06.

Constellation Software Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$41.06
Graham Number $139.24
PEmg 37.54
Current Ratio 0.89
PB Ratio 21.90
Current Dividend $5.26
Dividend Yield 0.83%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,031,983,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,164,685,000
Long-Term Debt $452,456,000
Total Assets $2,512,286,000
Intangible Assets $1,325,521,000
Total Liabilities $1,902,030,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 21,192,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $29.92
Dec2016 $13.02
Dec2015 $11.47
Dec2014 $5.62
Dec2013 $4.67
Dec2012 $4.33
Dec2011 $7.60
Dec2010 $1.43
Dec2009 $0.51
Dec2008 $0.88
Dec2007 $0.52
Dec2006 -$0.07
Dec2005 $0.03
Dec2004 $0.12
Dec2003 $0.91

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $16.80
Dec2016 $9.43
Dec2015 $7.34
Dec2014 $5.09
Dec2013 $4.45
Dec2012 $3.88
Dec2011 $3.17
Dec2010 $0.85
Dec2009 $0.50
Dec2008 $0.43
Dec2007 $0.24
Dec2006 $0.13
Dec2005 $0.23
Dec2004 $0.28
Dec2003 $0.30

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Adobe Systems Inc Valuation – February 2017 $ADBE
Synopsys Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SNPS
Microsoft Corporation Valuation – February 2017 $MSFT
Cisco Systems Inc Valuation – January 2017 $CSCO
Autodesk Inc Valuation – December 2016 $ADSK
Symantec Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $SYMC
Adobe Systems Inc Valuation – August 2016 $ADBE
Microsoft Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $MSFT
Cisco Systems Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CSCO
Oracle Corporation Valuation – July 2016 $ORCL

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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