Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – FebruaryÂ 2017.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Extra Space Storage Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company operates through three segments: rental operations; tenant reinsurance, and property management, acquisition and development. The Company owns, operates, manages, acquires, develops and redevelops self-storage properties (stores). The Company has interests in approximately 1000 operating stores. Of these stores, the Company owns approximately 270 stores in joint venture partnerships. An additional approximately 350 operating stores are owned by third parties and operated by the Company. The Company’s operating stores are located in over 30 states of the United States, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, and contains approximately 100 million square feet of net rentable space in approximately 896,000 units. The Company’s businesses are conducted through Extra Space Storage LP. The Company’s rental operations activities include rental operations of stores.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of EXR – March 2017
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$9,914,532,260||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.16||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||504.42%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||36.26||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||4.44||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.16||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-10.05||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$31.62|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$18.54|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||13.88%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||94.19%|
Extra Space Storage, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.99 in 2013 to an estimated $2.18 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 13.88% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Extra Space Storage, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $30.78. The company pays a dividend of $2.93 per share, for a yield of 3.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 36.26, which was above the industry average of 31.91. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-37.89.
Extra Space Storage, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$37.89|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||8|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||12/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$74,353,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$466,388,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||125,948,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$2.36|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$2.18|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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