Extra Space Storage Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $EXR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Extra Space Storage Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company operates through three segments: rental operations; tenant reinsurance, and property management, acquisition and development. The Company owns, operates, manages, acquires, develops and redevelops self-storage properties (stores). The Company has interests in approximately 1000 operating stores. Of these stores, the Company owns approximately 270 stores in joint venture partnerships. An additional approximately 350 operating stores are owned by third parties and operated by the Company. The Company’s operating stores are located in over 30 states of the United States, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, and contains approximately 100 million square feet of net rentable space in approximately 896,000 units. The Company’s businesses are conducted through Extra Space Storage LP. The Company’s rental operations activities include rental operations of stores.

EXR Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EXR – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,914,532,260 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.16 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 504.42% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 36.26 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.44 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.16 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -10.05 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.18
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $83.96
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $31.62
MG Value based on 0% Growth $18.54
Market Implied Growth Rate 13.88%
Current Price $79.08
% of Intrinsic Value 94.19%

Extra Space Storage, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.99 in 2013 to an estimated $2.18 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 13.88% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Extra Space Storage, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $30.78. The company pays a dividend of $2.93 per share, for a yield of 3.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 36.26, which was above the industry average of 31.91. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-37.89.

Extra Space Storage, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$37.89
Graham Number $30.78
PEmg 36.26
Current Ratio 0.16
PB Ratio 4.44
Current Dividend $2.93
Dividend Yield 3.71%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8


Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $74,353,000
Total Current Liabilities $466,388,000
Long-Term Debt $3,941,223,000
Total Assets $7,091,446,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $4,846,554,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 125,948,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.36
Dec2016 $2.91
Dec2015 $1.56
Dec2014 $1.53
Dec2013 $1.53
Dec2012 $1.14
Dec2011 $0.54
Dec2010 $0.30
Dec2009 $0.37
Dec2008 $0.46
Dec2007 $0.53
Dec2006 $0.27
Dec2005 -$0.14
Dec2004 -$1.68
Dec2003 -$5.62
Dec2002 -$3.84

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.18
Dec2016 $1.97
Dec2015 $1.42
Dec2014 $1.24
Dec2013 $0.99
Dec2012 $0.66
Dec2011 $0.43
Dec2010 $0.38
Dec2009 $0.38
Dec2008 $0.22
Dec2007 -$0.38
Dec2006 -$1.29
Dec2005 -$2.13
Dec2004 -$2.83
Dec2003 -$2.90
Dec2002 -$1.28

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.






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