Internet Services Stocks

Paypal Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $PYPL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): PayPal Holdings, Inc. is a technology platform and digital payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants. The Company’s combined payment solutions, including its PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom and Paydiant products, compose its Payments Platform. It operates a two-sided global technology platform that links its customers, both merchants and consumers, around the globe to facilitate the processing of payment transactions, allowing it to connect merchants and consumers. It allows its customers to use their account for both purchase and paying for goods, as well as to transfer and withdraw funds. It enables consumers to exchange funds with merchants using funding sources, which include bank account, PayPal account balance, PayPal Credit account, credit and debit card or other stored value products. It offers consumers person-to-person payment solutions through its PayPal Website and mobile application, Venmo and Xoom.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PYPL – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $52,083,791,097 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.52 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 17049900.00% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 44.10 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.55 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.52 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.97
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $37.42
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $14.09
MG Value based on 0% Growth $8.26
Market Implied Growth Rate 17.80%
Current Price $42.87
% of Intrinsic Value 114.56%

Paypal Holdings Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0 in 2013 to an estimated $0.97 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 17.8% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Paypal Holdings Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $18.59. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 44.1, which was below the industry average of 158.7, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $6.03.

Paypal Holdings Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $6.03
Graham Number $18.59
PEmg 44.10
Current Ratio 1.52
PB Ratio 3.55
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $25,733,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $16,878,000,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $33,103,000,000
Intangible Assets $4,270,000,000
Total Liabilities $18,391,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,218,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.26
Dec2016 $1.15
Dec2015 $1.00
Dec2014 $0.34

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.97
Dec2016 $0.72
Dec2015 $0.42
Dec2014 $0.11

Recommended Reading:

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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