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Mining Stocks

Stillwater Mining Company Valuation – Initial Coverage $SWC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Stillwater Mining Company (SWC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Stillwater Mining Company is engaged in the development, extraction, processing, smelting and refining of palladium, platinum and associated metals (platinum group metals (PGMs)) produced by mining a geological formation in south-central Montana, known as the J-M Reef. The Company operates through five segments: Mine Production, PGM Recycling, Canadian Properties, South American Properties and All Other. The Company is engaged in recycling spent catalytic converters and other industrial sources. The Company is also engaged in expanding its mining development along the J-M Reef, and holds exploration-stage properties at the Marathon PGM copper property, adjacent to Lake Superior in northern Ontario, Canada (Marathon), and at the Altar copper-gold property in San Juan province, Argentina. In addition to palladium and platinum, the Company’s operations produce associated by-product metals, including nickel, copper and minor amounts of gold, silver and rhodium.

SWC Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SWC – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,068,284,974 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 7.04 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -133.33% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 710.42 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.25 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 7.04 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.52 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.02
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $1.71
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $0.35
MG Value based on 0% Growth $0.20
Market Implied Growth Rate 350.96%
Current Price $17.05
% of Intrinsic Value 995.96%

Stillwater Mining Company does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.32 in 2013 to an estimated $0.02 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 350.96% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Stillwater Mining Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $7.16. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 710.42, which was above the industry average of 47.18. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $1.71.

Stillwater Mining Company scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.71
Graham Number $7.16
PEmg 710.42
Current Ratio 7.04
PB Ratio 2.25
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0


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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $614,319,000
Total Current Liabilities $87,308,000
Long-Term Debt $274,806,000
Total Assets $1,327,037,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $406,191,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 121,576,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.30
Dec2016 $0.08
Dec2015 -$0.10
Dec2014 $0.56
Dec2013 -$2.28
Dec2012 $0.46
Dec2011 $1.30
Dec2010 $0.51
Dec2009 -$0.09
Dec2008 -$1.26
Dec2007 -$0.17
Dec2006 $0.09
Dec2005 -$0.15
Dec2004 $0.33
Dec2003 -$4.77
Dec2002 $0.74
Dec2001 $1.68
Dec2000 $1.57
Dec1999 $0.96
Dec1998 $0.38
Dec1997 -$0.18

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.02
Dec2016 -$0.16
Dec2015 -$0.19
Dec2014 -$0.12
Dec2013 -$0.32
Dec2012 $0.51
Dec2011 $0.37
Dec2010 -$0.12
Dec2009 -$0.40
Dec2008 -$0.45
Dec2007 -$0.34
Dec2006 -$0.53
Dec2005 -$0.71
Dec2004 -$0.69
Dec2003 -$0.78
Dec2002 $1.16
Dec2001 $1.21

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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