Information Technology Stocks

International Business Machines Corp Valuation – March 2017 $IBM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how International Business Machines Corp (IBM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a technology company. The Company operates through five segments: Cognitive Solutions, Global Business Services (GBS), Technology Services & Cloud Platforms, Systems and Global Financing. The Cognitive Solutions segment delivers a spectrum of capabilities, from descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics to cognitive systems. Cognitive Solutions includes Watson, a cognitive computing platform that has the ability to interact in natural language, process big data, and learn from interactions with people and computers. The GBS segment provides clients with consulting, application management services and global process services. The Technology Services & Cloud Platforms segment provides information technology infrastructure services. The Systems segment provides clients with infrastructure technologies. The Global Financing segment includes client financing, commercial financing, and remanufacturing and remarketing.

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IBM data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of IBM – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $167,049,901,878 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.21 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 28.93% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 13.53 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 9.27 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.21 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 4.55 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $13.04
MG Growth Estimate -0.65%
MG Value $94.03
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $189.10
MG Value based on 0% Growth $110.85
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.52%
Current Price $176.46
% of Intrinsic Value 187.67%

International Business Machines Corp. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $13.63 in 2013 to an estimated $13.04 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 2.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into International Business Machines Corp. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $76.12. The company pays a dividend of $5.5 per share, for a yield of 3.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.53, which was below the industry average of 38.13, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-57.72.

International Business Machines Corp. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$57.72
Graham Number $76.12
PEmg 13.53
Current Ratio 1.21
PB Ratio 9.27
Current Dividend $5.50
Dividend Yield 3.12%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $43,888,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $36,275,000,000
Long-Term Debt $34,655,000,000
Total Assets $117,470,000,000
Intangible Assets $40,888,000,000
Total Liabilities $99,224,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 958,714,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $13.42
Dec2016 $12.38
Dec2015 $13.42
Dec2014 $11.90
Dec2013 $14.94
Dec2012 $14.37
Dec2011 $13.06
Dec2010 $11.52
Dec2009 $10.01
Dec2008 $8.89
Dec2007 $7.15
Dec2006 $6.11
Dec2005 $4.87
Dec2004 $4.38
Dec2003 $3.74
Dec2002 $2.06
Dec2001 $3.69
Dec2000 $4.44
Dec1999 $4.12
Dec1998 $3.29
Dec1997 $3.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $13.04
Dec2016 $13.04
Dec2015 $13.42
Dec2014 $13.33
Dec2013 $13.63
Dec2012 $12.50
Dec2011 $11.09
Dec2010 $9.65
Dec2009 $8.28
Dec2008 $7.03
Dec2007 $5.82
Dec2006 $4.85
Dec2005 $4.06
Dec2004 $3.66
Dec2003 $3.40
Dec2002 $3.33
Dec2001 $3.88

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

International Business Machines Corp Valuation – November 2015 Update $IBM
30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/15/14
International Business Machines Annual Valuation – 2014 $IBM
5 Outstanding Dow Components – March 2014
ModernGraham Valuation: International Business Machines (IBM)

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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