Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Lumentum Holdings Inc. is a provider of optical and photonic products for a range of end market applications, including data communications (Datacom) and telecommunications (Telecom) networking and commercial lasers (commercial lasers) for manufacturing, inspection and life-science applications. The Company operates in two segments: Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers (Lasers). The Company’s OpComms products include a range of components, modules and subsystems to support and maintain customers in its two primary markets: Telecom and Datacom. The Company’s Lasers products serve customers in markets and applications, such as manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing, and precision machining, such as drilling in printed circuit boards, wafer singulation and solar cell scribing. The Company’s customers include original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$3,228,875,975||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||2.61||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||529900.00%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||138.64||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||6.00||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||2.61||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||0.00||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$5.17|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$3.03|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||65.07%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||360.12%|
Lumentum Holdings Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0 in 2013 to an estimated $0.36 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 65.07% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Lumentum Holdings Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $14.59. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 138.64, which was above the industry average of 68.5. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $3.94.
Lumentum Holdings Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$3.94|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||12/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$527,600,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$202,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||62,700,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.11|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$0.36|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.