Corecivic Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CXW

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Corecivic Inc (CXW) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CoreCivic, Inc., formerly Corrections Corporation of America, is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, government real estate solutions, and a network of residential reentry centers to help address America’s recidivism crisis. In addition to providing fundamental residential services, the Company’s facilities offer a range of rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned or controlled 49 correctional and detention facilities, owned or controlled 25 residential reentry facilities, and managed an additional 11 correctional and detention facilities owned by its government partners, with a total design capacity of approximately 89,700 beds in 20 states and the District of Columbia.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CXW – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,622,263,742 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.10 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 33.50% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.87 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.55 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.10 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 53.89 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.77
MG Growth Estimate -1.04%
MG Value $11.34
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $25.61
MG Value based on 0% Growth $15.01
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.68%
Current Price $31.55
% of Intrinsic Value 278.13%

Corecivic Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.9 in 2013 to an estimated $1.77 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.68% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Corecivic Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $20.26. The company pays a dividend of $2.04 per share, for a yield of 6.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.87, which was below the industry average of 51.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-12.85.

Corecivic Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$12.85
Graham Number $20.26
PEmg 17.87
Current Ratio 1.10
PB Ratio 2.55
Current Dividend $2.04
Dividend Yield 6.47%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0


Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $298,824,000
Total Current Liabilities $272,193,000
Long-Term Debt $1,435,169,000
Total Assets $3,271,604,000
Intangible Assets $42,820,000
Total Liabilities $1,812,641,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 117,791,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.47
Dec2016 $1.87
Dec2015 $1.88
Dec2014 $1.66
Dec2013 $2.70
Dec2012 $1.56
Dec2011 $1.54
Dec2010 $1.39
Dec2009 $1.32
Dec2008 $1.20
Dec2007 $1.06
Dec2006 $0.86
Dec2005 $0.42
Dec2004 $1.55
Dec2003 $1.15
Dec2002 -$0.28
Dec2001 $0.08
Dec2000 -$18.90
Dec1999 -$2.37
Dec1998 $0.44
Dec1997 $0.61

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.77
Dec2016 $1.92
Dec2015 $1.92
Dec2014 $1.88
Dec2013 $1.90
Dec2012 $1.46
Dec2011 $1.38
Dec2010 $1.25
Dec2009 $1.11
Dec2008 $1.01
Dec2007 $0.95
Dec2006 $0.84
Dec2005 $0.75
Dec2004 -$0.48
Dec2003 -$2.35
Dec2002 -$4.14
Dec2001 -$5.39

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.






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