Fertilizer Stocks

Monsanto Company Valuation – March 2017 $MON

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Monsanto Company (MON) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Monsanto Company (Monsanto), along with its subsidiaries, is a provider of agricultural products for farmers. The Company provides seeds, biotechnology trait products, herbicides and precision agriculture tools to farmers. The Company operates through two segments: Seeds and Genomics, and Agricultural Productivity. Through its Seeds and Genomics segment, the Company produces seed brands, including DEKALB, Asgrow, Deltapine, Seminis and De Ruiter, and it develops biotechnology traits that assist farmers in controlling insects and weeds and precision agriculture to assist farmers in decision-making. It offers products, such as Germplasm and Biotechnology traits. Through its Agricultural Productivity segment, the Company manufactures Roundup brand herbicides and other herbicides and provides lawn-and-garden herbicide products for the residential market.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MON – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $50,260,222,618 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.29 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 31.02% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 26.79 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 11.45 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.29 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.74 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.26
MG Growth Estimate 2.49%
MG Value $57.39
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $61.75
MG Value based on 0% Growth $36.20
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.15%
Current Price $114.09
% of Intrinsic Value 198.78%

Monsanto Company does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.65 in 2013 to an estimated $4.26 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 9.15% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Monsanto Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $31.86. The company pays a dividend of $2.16 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 26.79, which was above the industry average of 17.37. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.63.

Monsanto Company scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.63
Graham Number $31.86
PEmg 26.79
Current Ratio 1.29
PB Ratio 11.45
Current Dividend $2.16
Dividend Yield 1.89%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 19

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 11/1/2016
Total Current Assets $9,652,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $7,500,000,000
Long-Term Debt $8,047,000,000
Total Assets $20,959,000,000
Intangible Assets $5,076,000,000
Total Liabilities $16,557,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 441,700,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.49
Aug2016 $2.99
Aug2015 $4.81
Aug2014 $5.22
Aug2013 $4.60
Aug2012 $3.79
Aug2011 $2.96
Aug2010 $1.99
Aug2009 $3.77
Aug2008 $3.62
Aug2007 $1.79
Aug2006 $1.25
Aug2005 $0.47
Aug2004 $0.50
Aug2003 $0.13
Dec2002 -$3.23
Dec2001 $0.57
Dec2000 $0.29
Dec1999 $0.29

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.26
Aug2016 $4.19
Aug2015 $4.62
Aug2014 $4.25
Aug2013 $3.65
Aug2012 $3.19
Aug2011 $2.87
Aug2010 $2.71
Aug2009 $2.78
Aug2008 $2.03
Aug2007 $1.10
Aug2006 $0.44
Aug2005 -$0.08
Aug2004 -$0.35
Aug2003 -$0.64
Dec2002 -$0.83
Dec2001 $0.33

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Monsanto Company Valuation – January 2016 Update $MON
5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows – September 2015
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/4/15
Monsanto Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $MON
Monsanto Company Quarterly Valuation – June 2014 $MON

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Mosaic Company Valuation – February 2017 $MOS
Scotts Miracle-Gro Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SMG
Intrepid Potash Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $IPI
CF Industries Holdings Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CF
CF Industries Valuation – March 2016 $CF
Monsanto Company Valuation – January 2016 Update $MON
Mosaic Company Valuation – October 2015 Update $MOS
CF Industries Holdings Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $CF
Monsanto Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $MON
Mosaic Company Analysis – July 2015 Update $MOS

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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