El Pollo LoCo Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LOCO
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how El Pollo LoCo Holdings Inc (LOCO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. is a restaurant concept that offers fire-grilling citrus-marinated chicken. The Company operates in the limited service restaurant segment. The Company’s activities are conducted through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc. (EPL), which develops, franchises, licenses and operates quick-service restaurants under the name El Pollo Loco. The restaurants are located in California, Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Utah. The Company offers flame-grilled chicken in a range of contemporary Mexican-influenced entrees, including specialty chicken burritos, chicken quesadillas, chicken tortilla soup, Pollo Bowls and Pollo Salads. The Company operates approximately 190 and franchises over 250 El Pollo Loco restaurants. In addition, the Company licenses approximately two restaurants in the Philippines. The Company serves individual and family-sized chicken meals, a range of Mexican-inspired entrees and sides. It offers alternative proteins, such as shrimp, carnitas and beef.
[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
[otw_shortcode_button href=”https://www.moderngraham.com/moderngraham-stocks-screens/” size=”medium” icon_position=”left” shape=”square”]Learn More About Premium Membership[/otw_shortcode_button]
[/level-free]
[not-level-free]
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of LOCO – April 2017
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $440,763,196 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 0.79 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 5700.00% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 19.59 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 1.71 | Pass | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 0.79 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | -11.03 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $0.59 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 15.00% |
| MG Value | $22.79 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Grade | C- |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $8.58 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $5.03 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 5.55% |
| Current Price | $11.60 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 50.90% |
El Pollo LoCo Holdings Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.27 in 2013 to an estimated $0.59 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.55% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into El Pollo LoCo Holdings Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $10.04. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.59, which was below the industry average of 33.24, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-4.36.
El Pollo LoCo Holdings Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$4.36 |
| Graham Number | $10.04 |
| PEmg | 19.59 |
| Current Ratio | 0.79 |
| PB Ratio | 1.71 |
| Current Dividend | $0.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 0 |
[/not-level-free]
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2016 |
| Total Current Assets | $35,885,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $45,318,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $104,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $471,305,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $311,046,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $206,123,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 39,027,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $0.65 |
| Dec2016 | $0.47 |
| Dec2015 | $0.62 |
| Dec2014 | $1.24 |
| Dec2013 | -$0.59 |
| Dec2012 | -$0.27 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $0.59 |
| Dec2016 | $0.47 |
| Dec2015 | $0.38 |
| Dec2014 | $0.20 |
| Dec2013 | -$0.27 |
| Dec2012 | -$0.09 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
