Oil & Gas Stocks

Apache Corp Valuation – April 2017 $APA

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Apache Corp (APA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Apache Corporation is an independent energy company. The Company explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. It has production in four segments: the United States, Canada, Egypt and the United Kingdom North Sea. It also pursues exploration interests in Suriname. In North America, the Company has three onshore regions: The Permian region, The Midcontinent/Gulf Coast region and The Canada region. The Permian region located in West Texas and New Mexico includes the Permian sub-basins, the Midland Basin, Central Basin Platform/Northwest Shelf and Delaware Basin. The Midcontinent/Gulf Coast region includes the Granite Wash, Tonkawa, Canyon Lime, Marmaton, and Cleveland formations of the West Anadarko Basin, the Woodford-SCOOP and Stack plays located in Central Oklahoma, and the Eagle Ford shale in South East Texas. The Canada region has exploration and production operations in the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of APA – April 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $20,848,279,464 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.76 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -423.55% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -5.89 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.25 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.76 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 6.11 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$9.07
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$131.57
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$77.13
Market Implied Growth Rate -7.19%
Current Price $53.44
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Apache Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $6.51 in 2013 to an estimated $-9.07 for 2017. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Apache Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $1 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -5.89, which was below the industry average of 63.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-34.41.

Apache Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$34.41
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -5.89
Current Ratio 1.76
PB Ratio 3.25
Current Dividend $1.00
Dividend Yield 1.87%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,241,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,843,000,000
Long-Term Debt $8,544,000,000
Total Assets $22,519,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $16,281,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 379,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.21
Dec2016 -$3.71
Dec2015 -$27.40
Dec2014 -$21.76
Dec2013 $5.50
Dec2012 $4.92
Dec2011 $11.47
Dec2010 $8.46
Dec2009 -$0.87
Dec2008 $2.09
Dec2007 $8.39
Dec2006 $7.64
Dec2005 $7.84
Dec2004 $5.03
Dec2003 $3.43
Dec2002 $1.80
Dec2001 $2.25
Dec2000 $2.46
Dec1999 $0.75
Dec1998 -$0.58
Dec1997 $0.71

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$9.07
Dec2016 -$11.83
Dec2015 -$12.42
Dec2014 -$2.71
Dec2013 $6.51
Dec2012 $6.41
Dec2011 $6.74
Dec2010 $4.63
Dec2009 $3.49
Dec2008 $5.84
Dec2007 $7.30
Dec2006 $6.22
Dec2005 $5.03
Dec2004 $3.42
Dec2003 $2.45
Dec2002 $1.75
Dec2001 $1.53

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Apache Corporation Valuation – January 2016 Update $APA
32 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/6/14
Apache Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $APA

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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