Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Starwood Property Trust Inc (STWD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company operates through three business segments: Real estate lending (the Lending Segment), which engages primarily in originating, acquiring, financing and managing commercial first mortgages, subordinated mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), residential mortgage-backed securities, and other real estate and real estate-related debt investments; Real estate investing and servicing (the Investing and Servicing Segment), which includes a servicing business in the United States that manages and works out problem assets; an investment business that selectively acquires and manages unrated, investment grade and non-investment grade rated CMBS, and a mortgage loan business, and Real estate property (the Property Segment), which engages primarily in acquiring and managing equity interests in stabilized commercial real estate properties.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$5,936,504,324||Pass|
|2. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|3. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||401.85%||Pass|
|5. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||12.17||Pass|
|6. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||1.22||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|2. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|3. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||3.72%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$27.14|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$15.91|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||1.84%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||76.37%|
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.5 in 2013 to an estimated $1.87 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 1.84% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Starwood Property Trust, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $29.28. The company pays a dividend of $1.92 per share, for a yield of 8.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.17, which was below the industry average of 51.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||12/1/2016|
|Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation||$2,011,544,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||241,794,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$2.01|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.87|
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The author held a long position in Starwood Property Trust Inc (STWD) but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.