Diebold Nixdorf Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DBD

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Diebold Nixdorf Inc (DBD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated provides connected commerce services, software and technology. The Company’s geographic segments include North America (NA), Asia Pacific (AP), Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Latin America (LA). These segments sell and service financial self-service (FSS), retail solutions and security systems. The Company is engaged in providing connected commerce solutions to financial institutions. These solutions are supported by a field service organization. The Company provides security solutions, which combine a services portfolio and products to help address its customers’ needs. The Company provides services for a portfolio of physical security offerings, in addition to serving as a national locksmith. The Company provides voting machines for official elections and the terminals for the governmental lottery and correspondent bank.

DBD Chart

DBD data by YCharts

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DBD – July 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,607,666,752 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.41 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 58.87% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 31.53 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.00 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.41 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.24 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.67
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $25.95
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $9.77
MG Value based on 0% Growth $5.73
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.51%
Current Price $21.25
% of Intrinsic Value 81.89%

Diebold Nixdorf Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.21 in 2013 to an estimated $0.67 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 11.51% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Diebold Nixdorf Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $16.83.  The company pays a dividend of $0.96 per share, for a yield of 4.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 31.53, which was below the industry average of 41.95, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-28.02.

Diebold Nixdorf Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$28.02
Graham Number $16.83
PEmg 31.53
Current Ratio 1.41
PB Ratio 3.00
Current Dividend $0.96
Dividend Yield 4.53%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0


Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2017
Total Current Assets $2,601,500,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,846,200,000
Long-Term Debt $1,689,700,000
Total Assets $5,244,600,000
Intangible Assets $1,765,200,000
Total Liabilities $4,711,500,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 75,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.60
Dec2016 -$0.48
Dec2015 $1.12
Dec2014 $1.76
Dec2013 -$2.85
Dec2012 $1.15
Dec2011 $2.22
Dec2010 -$0.31
Dec2009 $0.39
Dec2008 $1.33
Dec2007 $0.59
Dec2006 $1.55
Dec2005 $1.43
Dec2004 $2.53
Dec2003 $2.37
Dec2002 $1.37
Dec2001 $0.93
Dec2000 $1.92
Dec1999 $1.85
Dec1998 $1.10
Dec1997 $1.76

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.67
Dec2016 $0.19
Dec2015 $0.57
Dec2014 $0.33
Dec2013 -$0.21
Dec2012 $1.05
Dec2011 $0.95
Dec2010 $0.45
Dec2009 $0.90
Dec2008 $1.27
Dec2007 $1.39
Dec2006 $1.81
Dec2005 $1.87
Dec2004 $2.00
Dec2003 $1.72
Dec2002 $1.41
Dec2001 $1.46

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.






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