Apparel Stocks

Deckers Outdoor Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $DECK

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Deckers Outdoor Corporation is engaged in designing, marketing and distributing footwear, apparel and accessories for both everyday casual lifestyle use and high performance activities. The Company’s segments include operations of its brands, such as UGG, Teva, Sanuk and other brands; wholesale divisions, and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) business, which includes E-Commerce business and retail store business. The Company sells accessories, such as handbags and loungewear, through domestic and international retailers, international distributors and directly to end user consumers both domestically and internationally, through its Websites, call centers and retail stores. The Company markets its products primarily under three brands: UGG, Teva and Sanuk. The Company’s other brands include Hoka One One (Hoka), Ahnu and Koolaburra by UGG (Koolaburra). It has a total of over 150 retail stores across the world.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DECK – July 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,115,504,804 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 5.16 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -8.77% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.40 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.24 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 5.16 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.05 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.09
MG Growth Estimate -3.60%
MG Value $18.06
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $44.78
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.25
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.45%
Current Price $66.08
% of Intrinsic Value 365.79%

Deckers Outdoor Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.06 in 2013 to an estimated $3.09 for 2018.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.45% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Deckers Outdoor Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $53.09.  The company does not pay a dividend.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 21.4, which was below the industry average of 32.02, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $18.06.

Deckers Outdoor Corp scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $18.06
Graham Number $53.09
PEmg 21.40
Current Ratio 5.16
PB Ratio 2.24
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2017
Total Current Assets $820,821,000
Total Current Liabilities $159,051,000
Long-Term Debt $32,082,000
Total Assets $1,191,780,000
Intangible Assets $79,128,000
Total Liabilities $237,525,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 32,289,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.20
Mar2017 $0.18
Mar2016 $3.70
Mar2015 $4.66
Dec2013 $4.18
Dec2012 $3.45
Dec2011 $5.07
Dec2010 $4.03
Dec2009 $2.96
Dec2008 $1.87
Dec2007 $1.69
Dec2006 $0.79
Dec2005 $0.81
Dec2004 $0.68
Dec2003 $0.26
Dec2002 -$0.25
Dec2001 $0.06
Dec2000 $0.25
Dec1999 $0.11
Dec1998 -$0.11
Dec1997 $0.17

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.09
Mar2017 $2.77
Mar2016 $4.11
Mar2015 $4.30
Dec2013 $4.06
Dec2012 $3.83
Dec2011 $3.72
Dec2010 $2.78
Dec2009 $1.98
Dec2008 $1.38
Dec2007 $1.04
Dec2006 $0.63
Dec2005 $0.47
Dec2004 $0.27
Dec2003 $0.07
Dec2002 -$0.01
Dec2001 $0.10

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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