Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Viavi Solutions Inc (VIAV) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Viavi Solutions Inc. (Viavi) is a provider of network test, monitoring and assurance solutions to communications service providers, enterprises and their ecosystems. The Company also offers thin film optical coatings, providing light management solutions to anti-counterfeiting, consumer and industrial, government and healthcare and other markets. The Company’s segments include Network Enablement (NE), Service Enablement (SE), and Optical Security and Performance Products (OSP). The NE segment provides testing solutions that access the network to perform build-out and maintenance tasks. The SE segment offers solutions, which are embedded systems that yield network, service and application performance data. The OSP segment provides optical security solutions. The OSP segment’s security offerings for the currency market include Optically Variable Pigment (OVP), Optically Variable Magnetic Pigment (OVMP) and banknote thread substrates.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$2,672,262,214||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||6.87||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-90.87%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||-200.89||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||3.42||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||6.87||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||0.66||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||11.51%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||-$0.81|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||-$0.48|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||-104.70%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Viavi Solutions Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.24 in 2013 to an estimated $-0.06 for 2017. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Viavi Solutions Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $5.04. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -200.89, which was below the industry average of 34.38, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $1.4.
Viavi Solutions Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$1.40|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||3/1/2017|
|Total Current Assets||$1,697,500,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$247,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||234,600,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$0.38|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$0.06|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.