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PNM Resources Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $PNM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how PNM Resources Inc (PNM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): PNM Resources, Inc. (PNMR) is an investor-owned holding company with approximately two regulated utilities providing electricity and electric services in New Mexico and Texas. PNMR’s electric utilities are Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP). It operates in three segments: PNM, TNMP, and Corporate and Other. The Company, through its Website provides information, including news releases, notices of Webcasts, and filings. PNM is an electric utility that provides electric generation, transmission and distribution service to its rate-regulated customers. TNMP is a regulated utility operating in Texas. TNMP provides transmission and distribution services in Texas under the provisions of Texas Electric Choice Act (TECA) and the Texas Public Utility Regulatory Act. The Corporate and Other segment includes PNMR holding company activities, related to corporate level debt and PNMR Services Company.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PNM – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,265,875,280 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.46 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -250.21% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 30.76 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.91 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.46 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -5.32 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.34
MG Growth Estimate 1.98%
MG Value $16.68
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $19.42
MG Value based on 0% Growth $11.38
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.13%
Current Price $41.20
% of Intrinsic Value 246.98%

PNM Resources Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.18 in 2013 to an estimated $1.34 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.13% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into PNM Resources Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $29.99.  The company pays a dividend of $0.88 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 30.76, which was above the industry average of 24.79.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-56.2.

PNM Resources Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$56.20
Graham Number $29.99
PEmg 30.76
Current Ratio 0.46
PB Ratio 1.91
Current Dividend $0.88
Dividend Yield 2.14%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $353,587,000
Total Current Liabilities $766,570,000
Long-Term Debt $2,199,105,000
Total Assets $6,584,445,000
Intangible Assets $278,297,000
Total Liabilities $4,857,185,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 80,131,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.90
Dec2016 $1.46
Dec2015 $0.20
Dec2014 $1.45
Dec2013 $1.25
Dec2012 $1.31
Dec2011 $1.96
Dec2010 -$0.49
Dec2009 $1.36
Dec2008 -$3.24
Dec2007 $0.96
Dec2006 $1.71
Dec2005 $0.98
Dec2004 $1.41
Dec2003 $1.56
Dec2002 $1.07
Dec2001 $2.51
Dec2000 $1.69
Dec1999 $1.34
Dec1998 $1.30
Dec1997 $1.27

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.34
Dec2016 $1.08
Dec2015 $1.01
Dec2014 $1.31
Dec2013 $1.18
Dec2012 $0.83
Dec2011 $0.43
Dec2010 -$0.21
Dec2009 $0.07
Dec2008 -$0.26
Dec2007 $1.26
Dec2006 $1.39
Dec2005 $1.33
Dec2004 $1.55
Dec2003 $1.62
Dec2002 $1.63
Dec2001 $1.81

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Public Service Enterprise Group Inc Valuation – July 2017 $PEG
Eversource Energy Valuation – July 2017 $ES
PPL Corp Valuation – June 2017 $PPL
Entergy Corp Valuation – April 2017 $ETR
California Water Service Group Valuation – Initial Coverage $CWT
TransAlta Corporation – Initial Coverage $TSE:TA
Pinnacle West Corp Valuation – March 2017 $PNW
NiSource Inc Valuation – March 2017 $NI
Canadian Utilities Ltd Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CU
American Electric Power Company Inc Valuation – March 2017 $AEP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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