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Canadian Food Processing Stocks

George Weston Limited Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:WN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how George Weston Ltd (TSE:WN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): George Weston Limited is a holding company engaged in food processing and distribution business. The Company, through its two operating segments, Weston Foods and Loblaw, holds cash, short-term investments and a direct investment in Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (Choice Properties). The Weston Foods operating segment includes a fresh bakery business in Canada, and frozen, artisan style bakery and biscuit businesses throughout North America. The Loblaw segment, which is operated by Loblaw Companies Limited, is a food and pharmacy retailer, and the majority unitholder of Choice Properties. Loblaw provides Canadians with grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty, apparel, general merchandise, retail banking, credit card services, insurance and wireless mobile products and services. Choice Properties owns, develops and manages income-producing retail and commercial properties.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-WN – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $13,945,714,669 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.50 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -12.58% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.06 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.80 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.50 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.95 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.53
MG Growth Estimate 0.74%
MG Value $45.26
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $65.71
MG Value based on 0% Growth $38.52
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.78%
Current Price $109.02
% of Intrinsic Value 240.87%

George Weston Limited is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.32 in 2013 to an estimated $4.53 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.78% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into George Weston Limited revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $92.95.  The company pays a dividend of $1.75 per share, for a yield of 1.6%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.06, which was below the industry average of 34.94, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-142.17.

George Weston Limited receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$142.17
Graham Number $92.95
PEmg 24.06
Current Ratio 1.50
PB Ratio 1.80
Current Dividend $1.75
Dividend Yield 1.60%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $11,415,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $7,595,000,000
Long-Term Debt $11,253,000,000
Total Assets $37,411,000,000
Intangible Assets $13,041,000,000
Total Liabilities $29,656,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 128,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.07
Dec2016 $3.90
Dec2015 $3.62
Dec2014 $0.64
Dec2013 $4.89
Dec2012 $3.29
Dec2011 $4.55
Dec2010 $2.92
Dec2009 $7.67
Dec2008 $6.10
Dec2007 $3.92
Dec2006 $0.52
Dec2005 $5.11
Dec2004 $3.10
Dec2003 $5.78
Dec2002 $5.02
Dec2001 $4.37
Dec2000 $3.66
Dec1999 $2.67
Dec1998 $5.82
Dec1997 $1.82

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.53
Dec2016 $3.26
Dec2015 $3.10
Dec2014 $2.98
Dec2013 $4.32
Dec2012 $4.32
Dec2011 $4.90
Dec2010 $4.80
Dec2009 $5.38
Dec2008 $4.07
Dec2007 $3.27
Dec2006 $3.26
Dec2005 $4.65
Dec2004 $4.41
Dec2003 $4.81
Dec2002 $4.31
Dec2001 $3.86

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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