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ATN International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $ATNI

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how ATN International Inc (ATNI) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): ATN International, Inc. (ATN), formerly Atlantic Tele-Network, Inc., is a holding company. The Company’s segments include U.S. Telecom, International Telecom and Renewable Energy. In the United States, it provides wholesale wireless voice and data roaming services in rural markets to national, regional, local and selected international wireless carriers. Its wholesale networks are located principally in the western United States. It provides wireless voice and data service to retail and business customers in Bermuda under the One name, in Guyana under the GTT name and in the United States Virgin Islands under the Innovative and Choice brand names. The Company offers voice services that include local exchange, regional and long distance calling and voice messaging services in Bermuda, Guyana, the United States Virgin Islands, and in other smaller markets in the Caribbean and the United States. It offers services, which include Wireless, Wireline and Renewable Energy.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ATNI – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $945,750,205 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.27 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -52.12% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.00 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.39 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.27 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.78 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.66
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $38.50
MG Value based on 0% Growth $22.57
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.75%
Current Price $58.43
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

ATN International Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  small size, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $8.17 in 2013 to an estimated $2.66 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.75% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into ATN International Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $38.74.  The company pays a dividend of $1.32 per share, for a yield of 2.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22, which was below the industry average of 37.96, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-10.78.

ATN International Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$10.78
Graham Number $38.74
PEmg 22.00
Current Ratio 2.27
PB Ratio 1.39
Current Dividend $1.32
Dividend Yield 2.26%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 10

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $344,335,000
Total Current Liabilities $151,891,000
Long-Term Debt $149,832,000
Total Assets $1,201,476,000
Intangible Assets $171,945,000
Total Liabilities $519,767,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 16,274,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.59
Dec2016 $0.75
Dec2015 $1.05
Dec2014 $3.01
Dec2013 $19.71
Dec2012 $3.13
Dec2011 $1.41
Dec2010 $2.48
Dec2009 $2.32
Dec2008 $2.28
Dec2007 $2.48
Dec2006 $1.72
Dec2005 $1.10
Dec2004 $0.99
Dec2003 $0.98
Dec2002 $0.75
Dec2001 $0.73
Dec2000 $1.00
Dec1999 $0.82
Dec1998 $1.29
Dec1997 $0.68

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.66
Dec2016 $3.97
Dec2015 $5.61
Dec2014 $7.24
Dec2013 $8.17
Dec2012 $2.38
Dec2011 $2.06
Dec2010 $2.35
Dec2009 $2.18
Dec2008 $1.98
Dec2007 $1.70
Dec2006 $1.25
Dec2005 $0.98
Dec2004 $0.91
Dec2003 $0.86
Dec2002 $0.84
Dec2001 $0.89

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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