Defense Stocks

Triumph Group Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TGI

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Triumph Group Inc (TGI) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Triumph Group, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, repairs, overhauls and distributes a portfolio of aircraft components, accessories, subassemblies and systems. The Company offers a range of products and services to the aerospace industry through three segments: Triumph Aerostructures Group, whose companies are engaged in the design, manufacture, assembly and integration of metallic and composite aerostructures and structural components for the aerospace original equipment manufacturer (OEM) market; Triumph Aerospace Systems Group, whose companies design, engineer and manufacture a range of build-to-print components, assemblies and systems also for the OEM market, and Triumph Aftermarket Services Group, whose companies serve aircraft fleets, such as commercial airlines, the United States military and cargo carriers, through the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) of aircraft components and accessories manufactured by third parties.

TGI Chart

TGI data by YCharts

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TGI – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,255,467,959 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.43 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -334.67% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -10.74 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.46 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.43 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.27 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$2.36
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$34.15
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$20.02
Market Implied Growth Rate -9.62%
Current Price $25.30
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Triumph Group Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.45 in 2014 to an estimated $-2.36 for 2018.  This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Triumph Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $37.96.  The company pays a dividend of $0.16 per share, for a yield of 0.6%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -10.74, which was below the industry average of 32.41, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-35.66.

Triumph Group Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$35.66
Graham Number $37.96
PEmg -10.74
Current Ratio 1.43
PB Ratio 1.46
Current Dividend $0.16
Dividend Yield 0.63%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $1,663,799,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,161,607,000
Long-Term Debt $1,140,165,000
Total Assets $4,276,044,000
Intangible Assets $1,726,201,000
Total Liabilities $3,423,154,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 49,341,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.75
Mar2017 -$0.87
Mar2016 -$21.29
Mar2015 $4.68
Mar2014 $3.91
Mar2013 $5.67
Mar2012 $5.41
Mar2011 $3.16
Mar2010 $2.04
Mar2009 $2.65
Mar2008 $1.92
Mar2007 $1.44
Mar2006 $1.08
Mar2005 $0.60
Mar2004 $0.62
Mar2003 $1.16
Mar2002 $1.56
Mar2001 $1.50
Mar2000 $1.40
Mar1999 $1.22
Mar1998 $1.10

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$2.36
Mar2017 -$4.13
Mar2016 -$3.95
Mar2015 $4.67
Mar2014 $4.45
Mar2013 $4.41
Mar2012 $3.53
Mar2011 $2.48
Mar2010 $2.03
Mar2009 $1.87
Mar2008 $1.36
Mar2007 $1.04
Mar2006 $0.90
Mar2005 $0.90
Mar2004 $1.12
Mar2003 $1.37
Mar2002 $1.43

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Northrop Grumman Corp Valuation – February 2017 $NOC
Rockwell Collins Inc Valuation – January 2017 $COL
Raytheon Company Valuation – August 2016 $RTN
Rockwell Collins Inc Valuation – August 2016 $COL
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc Valuation – July 2016 $LLL
Lockheed Martin Corporation Valuation – June 2016 $LMT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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