Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts in North America, serving do-it-for-me (Professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers. The Company’s stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. It serves through various channels ranging from traditional brick and mortar store locations to self-serving e-commerce sites. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 5,062 total stores and 127 branches primarily under the trade names Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. As of December 31, 2016, its Advance Auto Parts operations consisted of three geographic divisions, which included the operations of the stores operating under the Advance Auto Parts, Carquest and Autopart International trade names.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAP – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,076,036,443 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.48 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 91.48% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.24 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.27 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.48 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.60 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.90
MG Growth Estimate 3.05%
MG Value $86.12
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $85.54
MG Value based on 0% Growth $50.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.87%
Current Price $95.80
% of Intrinsic Value 111.24%

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the  low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.9 in 2013 to an estimated $5.9 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.87% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Advance Auto Parts, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $67.69.  The company pays a dividend of $0.24 per share, for a yield of 0.3%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.24, which was below the industry average of 18.18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $0.23.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.23
Graham Number $67.69
PEmg 16.24
Current Ratio 1.48
PB Ratio 2.27
Current Dividend $0.24
Dividend Yield 0.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0


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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $5,326,215,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,598,327,000
Long-Term Debt $1,043,690,000
Total Assets $8,437,413,000
Intangible Assets $1,612,795,000
Total Liabilities $5,309,136,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 74,093,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.15
Dec2016 $6.20
Dec2015 $6.40
Dec2014 $6.71
Dec2013 $5.32
Dec2012 $5.22
Dec2011 $5.11
Dec2010 $3.95
Dec2009 $2.83
Dec2008 $2.49
Dec2007 $2.28
Dec2006 $2.16
Dec2005 $2.13
Dec2004 $1.66
Dec2003 $1.11
Dec2002 $0.60
Dec2001 $0.13
Dec2000 $0.23
Dec1999 -$0.30
Dec1998 -$0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.90
Dec2016 $6.17
Dec2015 $6.02
Dec2014 $5.64
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $4.44
Dec2011 $3.81
Dec2010 $3.02
Dec2009 $2.49
Dec2008 $2.26
Dec2007 $2.06
Dec2006 $1.81
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $1.00
Dec2003 $0.57
Dec2002 $0.24
Dec2001 $0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – November 2016 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAP

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.






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