Oil & Gas Stocks

Pioneer Natural Resources Valuation – September 2017 $PXD

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company explores for, develops and produces oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and gas within the United States, with operations primarily in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale play in South Texas, the Raton field in southeast Colorado and the West Panhandle field in the Texas Panhandle. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned interests in eight gas processing plants and nine treating facilities. As of December 31, 2016, its Spraberry/Wolfcamp field covered approximately 800,000 gross acres (690,000 net acres). The Company completed 12 Eagle Ford Shale wells during the fiscal year ended December 31, 2016. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned approximately 185,000 gross acres (165,000 net acres) in the center of the Raton Basin. As of December 31, 2016, the Company’s gas had an average energy content of 1,400 British thermal unit (Btu).

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PXD – September 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $22,304,888,628 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.97 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -137.93% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 1,311.30 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.10 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.97 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.51 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.10
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $1.45
MG Value based on 0% Growth $0.85
Market Implied Growth Rate 651.40%
Current Price $131.13
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Pioneer Natural Resources does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.37 in 2013 to an estimated $0.1 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 651.4% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Pioneer Natural Resources revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $61.59.  The company pays a dividend of $0.08 per share, for a yield of 0.1%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 1311.3, which was above the industry average of 63.11.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.35.

Pioneer Natural Resources scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.35
Graham Number $61.59
PEmg 1,311.30
Current Ratio 1.97
PB Ratio 2.10
Current Dividend $0.08
Dividend Yield 0.06%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $3,064,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,558,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,281,000,000
Total Assets $16,271,000,000
Intangible Assets $270,000,000
Total Liabilities $5,674,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 170,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.75
Dec2016 -$3.34
Dec2015 -$1.83
Dec2014 $6.38
Dec2013 -$6.16
Dec2012 $1.50
Dec2011 $6.88
Dec2010 $5.08
Dec2009 -$0.46
Dec2008 $1.76
Dec2007 $3.06
Dec2006 $5.81
Dec2005 $3.80
Dec2004 $2.46
Dec2003 $3.46
Dec2002 $0.23
Dec2001 $1.00
Dec2000 $1.53
Dec1999 -$0.22
Dec1998 -$7.46
Dec1997 -$17.14

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.10
Dec2016 -$1.05
Dec2015 $0.52
Dec2014 $2.04
Dec2013 $0.37
Dec2012 $3.41
Dec2011 $3.99
Dec2010 $2.72
Dec2009 $1.96
Dec2008 $3.24
Dec2007 $3.89
Dec2006 $3.92
Dec2005 $2.71
Dec2004 $2.02
Dec2003 $1.60
Dec2002 $0.12
Dec2001 -$1.44

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Pioneer Natural Resources Annual Valuation – 2015 $PXD

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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