Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Post Holdings Inc (POST) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Post Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company. The Company operates through four segments, namely, Post Consumer Brands, Michael Foods Group, Active Nutrition and Private Brands. The Company’s Post Consumer Brands segment includes the Post Foods branded ready-to-eat cereal operations and the business of MOM Brands. Its Michael Foods Group segment produces and distributes egg products, refrigerated potato products, cheese and other dairy case products, and pasta products. Its Private Brands segment manufactures and distributes organic and conventional private label peanut butter and other nut butters, baking nuts, raisins and other dried fruit, and trail mixes. Its Active Nutrition segment markets and distributes protein beverages and bars under the Premier Protein brand, protein powders and bars under the Dymatize and Supreme Protein brands, and ready-to-drink beverages and other liquid-based solutions under the Joint Juice brand.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$5,509,024,781||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||6.43||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-158.80%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||-61.18||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||2.06||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||6.43||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||2.14||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||2.35%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||-$19.86|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||-$11.64|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||-34.84%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Post Holdings Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-1.62 in 2013 to an estimated $-1.37 for 2017. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Post Holdings Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $34.93. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -61.18, which was below the industry average of 34.94, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-67.15.
Post Holdings Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$67.15|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||6/1/2017|
|Total Current Assets||$3,520,200,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$547,300,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||67,500,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.17|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$1.37|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.