Conglomerates Stocks

3M Company Valuation – February 2018 $MMM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how 3M Company (MMM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): 3M Co. is a diversified technology company, which manufactures industrial, safety and consumer products. The company operates its business through the following segments: Industrial, Safety & Graphics, Health Care, Electronics & Energy, and Consumer. The Industrial segment provides products, including tapes, abrasives, adhesives, specialty materials and filtration systems to diverse markets from purification to aerospace. The Safety & Graphics segment offers personal protective equipment, traffic safety & security products, commercial graphics systems, commercial cleaning & protection products, floor matting, roofing granules for asphalt shingles, and fall protection products. The Health Care segment supplies medical and surgical equipment, skin health & infection prevention products, drug delivery systems, dental & orthodontic products, health information systems and food safety products. The Electronics & Energy segment offers optical films solutions for electronic displays, packaging and interconnection devices; insulating and splicing solutions; touch screens and touch monitors; renewable energy component solutions; and infrastructure protection products. The Consumer segment provides sponges, scouring pads, high-performance cloths, consumer and office tapes, repositionable notes, indexing systems, home improvement products, home care products, protective material products, and consumer & office tapes, as well as adhesives. The company was founded by Henry S. Bryan, Hermon W. Cable, John Dwan, William A. McGonagle and J. Danley Budd in 1902 and is headquartered in St. Paul, MN.

MMM Chart

MMM data by YCharts

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MMM – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $140,287,901,220 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.86 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 63.50% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 27.16 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 12.50 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.86 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.84 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.67
MG Growth Estimate 4.35%
MG Value $149.22
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $125.76
MG Value based on 0% Growth $73.72
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.33%
Current Price $235.58
% of Intrinsic Value 157.87%

3M Co is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.72 in 2014 to an estimated $8.67 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 9.33% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into 3M Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $66.95. The company pays a dividend of $4.7 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 27.16, which was above the industry average of 26.48. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.81.

3M Co receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$19.81
Graham Number $66.95
PEmg 27.16
Current Ratio 1.86
PB Ratio 12.50
Current Dividend $4.70
Dividend Yield 2.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $14,277,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $7,687,000,000
Long-Term Debt $12,096,000,000
Total Assets $37,987,000,000
Intangible Assets $13,449,000,000
Total Liabilities $26,424,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 613,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.25
Dec2017 $7.93
Dec2016 $8.16
Dec2015 $7.58
Dec2014 $7.49
Dec2013 $6.72
Dec2012 $6.32
Dec2011 $5.96
Dec2010 $5.63
Dec2009 $4.52
Dec2008 $4.89
Dec2007 $5.60
Dec2006 $5.06
Dec2005 $3.98
Dec2004 $3.56
Dec2003 $3.02
Dec2002 $2.50
Dec2001 $1.79
Dec2000 $2.23
Dec1999 $2.19
Dec1998 $1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.67
Dec2017 $7.78
Dec2016 $7.56
Dec2015 $7.11
Dec2014 $6.72
Dec2013 $6.17
Dec2012 $5.75
Dec2011 $5.42
Dec2010 $5.14
Dec2009 $4.87
Dec2008 $4.90
Dec2007 $4.69
Dec2006 $4.03
Dec2005 $3.33
Dec2004 $2.88
Dec2003 $2.47
Dec2002 $2.15

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

3M Company Valuation – August 2016 $MMM
3M Company Valuation – February 2016 Update $MMM
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/12/15
3M Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $MMM
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

E I du Pont de Nemours & Co Valuation – August 2016 $DD
3M Company Valuation – August 2016 $MMM
General Electric Co Valuation – July 2016 $GE
Illinois Tool Works Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ITW
Raven Industries Inc Valuation – July 2016 $RAVN
E.I. du Pont de Nemours Valuation – February 2016 $DD
Honeywell International Inc Valuation – February 2016 $HON
3M Company Valuation – February 2016 Update $MMM
Raven Industries Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $RAVN
Illinois Tool Works Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $ITW

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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