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Apple Inc Valuation – February 2018 $AAPL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Apple Inc (AAPL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Apple, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of mobile communication, media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. It operates through the following geographical segments: Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific. The Americas segment includes both North and South America. The Europe segment consists of European countries, as well as India, the Middle East, and Africa. The Greater China segment comprises of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and Asian countries not included in the reportable operating segments of the company. The company was founded by Steven Paul Jobs, Ronald Gerald Wayne, and Stephen G. Wozniak on April 1, 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, CA.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAPL – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $873,716,604,806 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.24 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 283.01% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 18.31 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.33 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.24 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $9.40
MG Growth Estimate 10.20%
MG Value $271.73
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $136.36
MG Value based on 0% Growth $79.93
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.91%
Current Price $172.19
% of Intrinsic Value 63.37%

Apple Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.6 in 2014 to an estimated $9.4 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Apple Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $80.01. The company pays a dividend of $2.4 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.31, which was below the industry average of 41.95, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-23.81.

Apple Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.81
Graham Number $80.01
PEmg 18.34
Current Ratio 1.24
PB Ratio 6.34
Current Dividend $2.40
Dividend Yield 1.39%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $143,810,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $115,788,000,000
Long-Term Debt $103,922,000,000
Total Assets $406,794,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,038,000,000
Total Liabilities $266,595,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 5,157,787,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.88
Sep2017 $9.21
Sep2016 $8.31
Sep2015 $9.22
Sep2014 $6.45
Sep2013 $5.68
Sep2012 $6.31
Sep2011 $3.95
Sep2010 $2.16
Sep2009 $1.30
Sep2008 $0.97
Sep2007 $0.56
Sep2006 $0.32
Sep2005 $0.22
Sep2004 $0.05
Sep2003 $0.01
Sep2002 $0.01
Sep2001 -$0.01
Sep2000 $0.16
Sep1999 $0.13
Sep1998 $0.08

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.40
Sep2017 $8.37
Sep2016 $7.70
Sep2015 $7.03
Sep2014 $5.60
Sep2013 $4.74
Sep2012 $3.83
Sep2011 $2.32
Sep2010 $1.36
Sep2009 $0.86
Sep2008 $0.57
Sep2007 $0.32
Sep2006 $0.18
Sep2005 $0.09
Sep2004 $0.03
Sep2003 $0.04
Sep2002 $0.06

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Apple Inc Valuation – January 2017 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AAPL
My Personal Holdings: Apple Inc. – September 2015 Update $AAPL
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14

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Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in AAPL but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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